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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
, 12 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
So #NoDeal holds No Fear for 3 of the remaining 6 Tory contenders? They assume such bravado gives leverage against the EU.

Perhaps now wd be a good time to check on how prepared UK is compared to the EU, which published its latest update this week.
eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?…
1/11
There are only 3 possible outcomes: No Brexit; Deal; No Deal.
Little sign yet of a 2nd ref.
Deal comes thru UK ratifying #WithdrawalAgreement.

No Deal = if UK fails to do so
+ there is EITHER (i) no UK request for an extension
OR (ii) no unanimous EU27 approval for one.

2/11
#NoDeal requires legislation [unless it really is apocalypse they're after].

EU Commission’s tally: 18 out of the 19 legislative proposals needed to prepare for Brexit have been adopted (19th due this month).
+ 63 non-legislative acts adopted. Doesn't see a need for more.

3/11
The UK has ratified about half of the key pieces of legislation needed to implement #Brexit.
The most critical ones for No Deal – inc. those to “roll over” existing EU trade deals & to establish “settled status” regime - are not yet ratified.
This👌chart by @instituteforgov:
4/11
UK Govt has also needed to pass 100s of statutory instruments to patch holes in domestic legislation.
Good progress made, but HOC committee responsible for scrutinising these SIs noted risks arising from depts. ‘bundling’ SIs to speed up the process. publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ld…
5/11
What about keeping people informed?

EU Commission published 93 notices to provide guidance to stakeholders & authorities in areas affected by Brexit.
Plus it's holding continuing technical discussions & exchanges with all MS plus industry representatives & civil society.
6/11
UK Govt has published c.750 pieces of no-deal communication since Oct18 & held 700 “cross-government stakeholder engagements” in 2019.
The main UK Govt technical notices for businesses were issued in Oct18.
gov.uk/government/col…

The unknowns are still most acute in NI 👇
7/11
Sedwill’s comments came (coincidentally??) the day after a story in @FinancialTimes -
A note prep. for cabinet on 21 May: while govt depts had delivered c.85% of their “core no-deal plans”, many provided only “a minimum viable level of capability”.
ft.com/content/a678db…

8/11
[Sedwill's comments being that UK was in 'pretty good shape' for No Deal Brexit. See bbc.co.uk/news/uk-486317…]
As well as prep, #NoDeal means money.
EU Commission says it's ready to propose financial support measures to mitigate Brexit impact in the most affected areas/sectors.
+Various MS have been heavily investing in contingency planning
HT/@instituteforgov
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/oth…
9/11
Meantime, DExEU Minister has apparently (wisely?) been urging “a ramp up of no-deal spending”, for which €1.5bn was already allocated.
What #NoDeal would actually cost when it comes to it is incalculable.
Google Operation Yellowhammer, Operation Brock, Operation Redfold…
10/11
But above all else, the biggest mistake of all in pursuing #NoDeal would be to imagine that, when the UK turns up wanting that new relationship, the EU will be bathed in an eternal sunshine of the spotless mind & not remember all the stress & money entailed in the divorce.

11/11
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Related hashtags

#NoDeal #WithdrawalAgreement #Brexit

More from @hayward_katy see all

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
THE KEY QUESTION at the nub of the fuss re: #Brexit, the #backstop & @BorderIrish is this:
What the heck has the European Union got to do with #peace here❓

Well, the ANSWER is, when all's said & done, pretty simple.

It’s about the British-Irish relationship.

THREAD 👇 
1/
This was acknowledged by the EU itself 35yrs ago in the Haagerup Report on resolving the conflict.

I'll explain this now by summarising my paper from Cooperation&Conflict @SAGECQPolitics.

[& you can see the Report here. Hurrah for @CAINWebService] 👉
2/
111 people were killed in 1981.
In May 1981, @EuroParl_EN passed a Resolution recognising the EU had ‘no competence to make proposals for changes in the Constitution of N.Ireland’.

110 were killed in 1982.
The Troubles were raging. And there was little prospect of resolution.
3/
Read 18 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Karen Wheeler (formerly of UK govt #Border Delivery group) made some interesting points at @ifgevents #IfGBrexit today.*
Here's a v.brief summary.
1/5
*[so did @AllieRenison and @Lorand_Bartels too, you won't be surprised to hear]
She said UK govt has been trying to guide UK businesses in prep for #NoDeal but particularly difficult for NI.
'Cos v. unclear how IRL wd deal with border.

Without knowing arrangements on the other side, it is extremely difficult for cross-border traders to prepare/comply.

2/5
This leaves NI businesses at a heavy disadvantage in a No Deal, being only prepared for the UK side of trade.

Worsened, she noted, by high number of small businesses in cross-border trade.

Unilateral policy of the UK for land border in a No Deal thus 'somewhat difficult'.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Interesting things afoot in political attitudes in N.Ireland.

The majority of people say they are #Neither Unionist nor Nationalist.
This has risen from 1/3 to ½ since 1998.

Here's a thread summarising my paper at the ‘constitutional futures’ conference @ucddublin today.
1/5
'Neithers' are likely to have a mix of both British & Irish identities.

This compares to ½ Unionists having exclusively British identities & 72% of Nationalists exclusively Irish identities.

So some 'Neithers' are only British, some only Irish & some ‘other’, i.e. mixed!
2/5
This slide shows we can’t read directly across from a #Neither identification to a particular view on NI’s constitutional status.

The majority say they'd vote to remain in the UK but also - notably - ¼ would not vote at all in a border poll.
#context
3/5
Read 5 tweets

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Shyam Sekhar
@shyamsek
Managing #fear is no easier than managing #greed. Yet, we spend disproportionate time managing it. Rarely do we handle it well on our own. Being fearful and lonely is a very bad place to be in.

The right company greatly helps. Wise counsel is invaluable in managing fear. 1/5
Often, the cause of #fear is not well understood. It is mostly within. And, what's within is always one that never gets found.

What would last for a brief period worries us to death. Almost.

Once the period passes, we forget what it felt like. We think it does not matter. 2/5
Often the worst managers of #fear are the most daring looking. Outwardly courage is such a soap bubble that it makes you forget what you are inside. And, it unfailingly exposes who you really are at the most inappropriate moment.

Ego is the source of most killing fears. 3/5
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Amee Vanderpool
@girlsreallyrule
Now seems like a good time to review the legal standard for Impeaching a sitting President. Article I § 2 of the Constitution gives the House of Representatives the sole power to impeach (make formal charges) and Article I § 3 gives Senate the sole power to try impeachments. 1/
Article II § 4 of the Constitution specifies the law: "The President, Vice President and all civil officers of the United States, shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." 2/
The operative legal standard to apply to an impeachment is "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." BUT, there is major difference of opinion over the interpretation of what this means practically.

Four schools of thought about what Impeachment means exist. 3/
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Michel Barnier
@MichelBarnier
👇 I briefed EU27 Ambassadors and EP today on the ongoing talks with #UK. Following the EU-UK statement of 20 Feb, the EU has proposed to the UK a legally binding interpretation of the #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Most importantly:
2/5 The arbitration panel can already, under Article 178 WA, give UK the right to a proportionate suspension of its obligations under the backstop, as a last resort, if EU breaches its best endeavours/good faith obligations to negotiate alternative solutions.
3/5 EU ready to give legal force to all commitments from January letter of @eucopresident and @JunckerEU through joint interpretative statement. europa.eu/!Kj44wR This will render best endeavour/good faith obligations even more actionable by an arbitration panel.
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets
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Johann Ketel
@johannketel
“May has left our fingers in the EU mangle but there is a way to get free”; highly dillusional article by ⁦@DavidDavisMP⁩. 1/

thetimes.co.uk/article/335917…
Take this for example, ditch #EU regulation and replace it in order to reach a trade deal with the US. They will have us for breakfast, forcing further deregulation and acceptance of harmful agri-products. Industry don’t necessarily want it and in services they will squeeze us./2
This; how, what and when? @DavidDavisMP has been Secretary of State for 2 years and hasn’t come up with any substantial and viable proposals, as the technology doesn’t exist. Neither has he strongly engaged with the #EU27 to work this out due to lack of internal HMG agreement. /3
Read 8 tweets

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