Thread by @george_yarrow

1/6 Interesting thoughts this a.m. from the Times's Matthew Parris on the 'columnist as political leader'. On BJ: "Ducking something for which you are not equipped is calculation, not cowardice. Acts of sudden boldness are just as likely with this man - and as calulated."

2/6 A problem with acts of sudden boldness is that they are very often misdirected & very costly, the detailed calculations having been inadequately done. Think the Boris Island Airport and the Garden Bridge. But what if the detail has been extensively examined over many years?

3/6 What if, over that period, the detailed boxes have been ticked? In that case an act of boldness, though it may be sudden, would not be a highly speculative act: it would be a calculated, measured leap.

4/6 As I see it, BJ at Number 10 would face a choice between two seek-a-deal strategies:
a) attempt to unpick the detail of Irish Protocol (& perhaps some other bits) & bring a modestly amended WA back to Parliament,
b) abandon May's red line on the EEA (the suddenly bold act).

5/6 IMO (provisional):
(b) is the more likely to succeed;
(a) is the more likely to happen (because BJ will be surrounded by advisors who want the negotiations to fail (to get to no deal));
If Parris is right, (b) should be natural proclivity of a lone-wolf 'columnist'.

6/6 (b) is the more likely to succeed because the EEAA is a signed & ratified enhanced FTA. The UK will be a party to it on 31/10/19 & it will still be a party to it on 1/11/19, even though it may have left the EU by then. Moreover, it greatly alleviates the NI/RoI border issues.