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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Main reflection on the Panorama Brexit documentary is the extent of the split over the EU within the Conservative Party. And that was even without including any overt referendum supporters. UK integrity and trade v pure sovereignty
The split in the Conservative Party is not about Brexit right or wrong, but a sectarian split about what Brexit really means. Such splits in political parties are often terminal.
Like many I spend time wondering which major UK political party is in a worse state. I currently think Conservative Party, with apparently irreconcilable views, rather than the Labour Party, which only needs to overthrow an abysmal leader and unpleasant coterie around him
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This debate rather passed me by, and I suspect it will rather pass most MPs by, but there are some critical questions, none more than 'why FTAs with US, Australia, New Zealand'? No convincing rationale has ever been offered, given these are already relatively open economies.
Second fundamental trade question, why do we want trade agreements? What are our particular exporting sectors, or rather, what will they be in the years to come, and what barriers that can be addressed do we seek to remove?
Third question, what do we have to offer to trade agreement partners in exchange for what we want? Do we want to retain some high tariffs so they can be bargained away, or not? Otherwise we are pretty open as an economy except in terms of visas. Is that our big offer?
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Many words will be written and spoken about Brexit and Boris Johnson but there's only one fundamental choice - accept the conditions that come with a relationship with the EU, or go for a long term no-deal position, likely to mean early general election of uncertain outcome
You can negotiate the EU's conditions a bit. But there's no choice where we get everything we want, with no conditions. GATT24 isn't going to save you, or any WTO agreements, or calling the Irish border a fictional problem, or whatever the invention of the day is
No-deal is also not a sustainable end state, as a trading nation we will need deals with our nearest trading partners, with their conditions, and they will happen with a change of Government. So the real choice we're facing is accept an EU deal comes with conditions now or later
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Good and realistic reading. Yet again looks like a Liam Fox valedictory, the detail doesn't seem to chime with the Johnson 'believe harder' agenda. And like so much trade policy too much focus on Free Trade Agreements not enough on the other tools available
Well this is awkward, but perhaps if the relevant members of Congress believe harder then a UK-US trade deal can still happen (more likely incidentally is a 'trade' deal which is about cooperation rather than tariff removal etc)
Anyway, thoughts at this time with the officials who have to write the Brexit briefing notes for new Ministers, balancing being helpful, with also having to explain a few realities. Treasury must be particularly looking forward to this given some suggestions of Ministers there
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Rem Korteweg
@remkorteweg
Spent past 2 days w national officials dealing with No Deal "contingency & preparedness".

Lots of good work being done, especially to get biz on board.

But some are frustrated that if Brexit deadline slips beyond 29/3, it will be difficult to keep business minds focused.

/1
Others said, "if there is a 2nd referendum and UK remains a member-state who will cover all the costs that EU governments and businesses are now making to prepare? The UK?"

/2
On that last point, an interesting (albeit unrealistic) suggestion was that article50 should be amended to include notion that the departing member-state should cover costs of the EU's No Deal preparations in event that the departing state revokes article50.

/3
Read 5 tweets
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Peter Jukes
@peterjukes
1. The effect of Mercer funding - of both Young Americas Foundation and Young Britons foundation - shows the three pronged strategy of Steve Bannon's influence on both #Brexit and #Trump
2. The first strategy is the Tea Party style insurrection from the right. (Kassam and Farage were inspired to invent their own British Tea Party until they realised that it was a rebellion against the Brits)
3. Just like the Tea Party in the US, the YBF and Conservative Way Forward organised its own slate of councillors, aldermen and MPs which it lavished with attention, online dirty tricks and activism
Read 23 tweets

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