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Trump's Electoral College edge endures heading into 2020, and it could grow further--potentially allowing him to win the presidency while losing the national vote by 5 points or more nytimes.com/2019/07/19/ups…
That huge split between the Electoral College and the popular vote would be unprecedented and it is not necessarily likely.
But it is imaginable, given the president's resilience in Wisc. and Fla., and the potential for a historic turnout amid a racially polarized campaign
But it is imaginable, given the president's resilience in Wisc. and Fla., and the potential for a historic turnout amid a racially polarized campaign
The president's resilience comes down to two crucial but iconoclastic regions: Miami-Dade County and the Milwaukee sububrs. There, the president's approval rating seems to be holding firm or, in Miami-Dade, may be higher than his '16 vote share.
The president's resilience in Wisc. and Fla. keeps his Electoral College edge alive, despite falling back farther in Penn and Mich.
It could grow further with racial polarization or high turnout; either would pad Democratic margins in nationally, but not much in the battlegrounds
It could grow further with racial polarization or high turnout; either would pad Democratic margins in nationally, but not much in the battlegrounds
It is important to emphasize that this isn't necessarily enough to make the president a favorite to win. I have no position on that, seriously.
And for now, his ratings remain under 50 in states worth 270 electoral votes.
And for now, his ratings remain under 50 in states worth 270 electoral votes.
