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1. Let me say at the outset I have no inside intelligence on this but yesterday there were credible reports of a Turkish observation post coming under heavy regime fire in the southwest corner of Idlib. Now there are credible reports of heavy fighting in the area southwest of
2. Manbij between Turkish backed jihadists and the regime. Erdogan has appeared today after days likely on holiday to threaten to attack US forces in Syria. IMO the only way to stop the war is for the SDF to occupy all the remaining rebel areas. I'm not sure they would do it but
3. it's the only way I see that the civil war ends. Despite heavy Turkish backed attacks and propaganda the NES administration is working towards political stability in Sunni Arab areas that in the Kurds' absence will be quickly occupied by Turkish jihadist including Al-Qaeda &
4. ISIS or by the Regime. Any remaining rational actors in Damascus will see this is the time to act. Erdogan is weak but his idlib Al-Qaeda force won't be defeated without total destruction of the region. Only an insane person would want that and I think Damascus now realizes
5. that's exactly what Erdogan is. If the Turkish air force is forced to stand down in northern Syria the threat to attack has now legitimized a preemptive strike on the jihadists. They will flee to Turkey and the West can then prepare for the next wave of attacks.
6. Drone working in the area of Turkey's Hatay province near Afrin and Idlib. I presume it's a Turkish bird but don't get why they are observing there. Maybe the 600km battle line threat got the Sultan's attention. Considering that Hatay is disputed land. 
