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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Leavers: we must unite the country

Also Leavers: if you don’t back a No Deal Brexit you are *literally* the enemy

Looking back at my pre-EU Ref scenarios work I can confidently say that the Brexit that May was shooting for was then termed ‘Hard Brexit’
Looked like a coalition of disagreeing Brexit factions could deliver Leave victory, but remarkable that something much harder than most were shooting for became too soft 3yrs on.
Credit to the Faragists/ ERG, Murdoch columnists/ Daily Mail etc that they have been able to shift the narrative such that the country is quite as split as it is.
They have worked tirelessly to transform the prospect of reconciliation & compromise into treachery and defeatism.
Anyone with strong political beliefs of any description has just had a 4yr masterclass around how to turn a niche & extreme position into govt policy.
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More from @toby_n see all

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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Newish Romer & Romer paper is fascinating. Looks at the GDP aftermath in OECD countries hit by finl crises 1980-2017. Ability of fiscal to respond (where low debt = lots of space; high debt = not much fiscal space) really important. brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
Captain obvious? No! Really actually pretty interesting actually. Why? Because countries worried that they might *at some point* run out of fiscal space sometimes fiscally tighten too early, making the country poorer.
Any clues as to which countries might have delivered large scale procyclical austerity, not because they had to? In the last decade Austria and the UK.
Read 5 tweets
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Got loads of finanical assets? You're rich. Got a big mortgage? You're middle class. From the new US distributional accounts. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/f…
Struggling with debt? You're poor.
Household balance sheets of the top 1% and next 9% during GFC. Wow - these charts are good!
Read 6 tweets
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Hoped @haskelecon would thread main points of his speech today on his personal a/c (which wld I think be a CB first!). But in its absence, here’s my précis 1/n
Business investment only 9% of GDP, but way volatile. Affects both demand (bidding stuff away: inflationary!) and supply (using this stuff to make more stuff: deflationary!). 2/n
Looks like something happened the UK in mid-16 to to weaken business investment vs G7 peers… 3/n
Read 6 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders pretty convinced they will soon by faced with Boris Johnson as new UK PM and opinion is split /1
Talk to different EU diplomats and politicians from different EU countries and you’ll get a number of different opinions as to how #Brexit will play out in the autumn /2
Some see BJ as one of the key architects of the Leave vote and therefore one of the few UK politicians able to sell a compromise deal with the EU to Parliament /3
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katya adler
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EU opinion divided this morning: those who fear creeping inevitability of no deal #Brexit , others are upbeat: say: the negotiated Brexit deal is the last option standing; others see possibility of longer Brexit extension for general elex/2nd ref /1
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Nick Vucic
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Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders not being bloody-minded when insist today that they see an increased likelihood of a no deal #Brexit .. Even if majority of MPs vote against “no deal” today that in itself doesn’t legally stop it from happening. MPs have to unite around another plan first 1
Just extending the Brexit process does not in itself prevent “no deal” from happening at a later date. That’s why EU keeps banging on about Parliament not just agreeing on what it doesn’t want but finally deciding what it does want: the PMs deal/another deal/elections/2nd ref. 2
And that will involve MPs holding their nose and voting (in many cases) for their least worst scenario rather than an ideal which may not realistically find a parliamentary majority or for magical #Brexit solutions that simply don’t exist 3
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There's a subtle shift in tone from the ultras this morning who are now pushing for a Canada+ agreement. That + is going to have to do a lot of work because we'd still be subject to third country controls thus having a similarly damaging effect to no deal #Brexit.
2. Again the Brexiters are ducking the issue that to have frictionless trade you need full regulatory harmonisation. If we don't have that then Mrs May will have to sign the NI backstop. Chequers is an attempt to fudge this question but it is at least a nod to reality.
3. Mrs May has attempted to bridge the unbridgeable divide. Chequers is an attempt at regulatory alignment while maintaining a level of regulatory sovereignty - which is tolerable but not to the EU. They won't go for it.
Read 16 tweets

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