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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This is great news

Prime Minister Johnson commits ££££ to bolster northern transport links as part of a broader plan to tackle regional inequality

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
If heading for autumn election then, for Boris, unveiling a "big offer" to the pro-Leave regions is crucial. PM May only seized 5 pro-Leave Lab seats, arguably bc Brexit not joined by economic pitch. Will need big offer for Wales & coastal England too (esp to hold up South West)
This is also arguably another area where indirect influence of Farage is clear. Cons are moving to neutralise the Brexit Party pitch to the regions. Either way, Labour to face greater competition in pro-Leave areas that have been stagnant for decades just as Lab drifts to Remain
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Lib Dems win by-election. Con majority now 1.

Results confirm national polls. Resurgent Lib Dems are making Labour life far harder. Is a Boris Bounce but not enough. Brexit Party still a viable threat on 10%. Most likely cost Boris an early victory.
Only way forward for Johnson & team is to find a way of really squeezing that Brexit Party vote all the way down. Meanwhile, lots of reasons for @joswinson to be confident about next GE, even though divided opposition helps Johnson
*Treat by-elections with caution* but on these kinds of shifts the Lib Dems will start to seize seats like Lewes, St Ives, North Cornwall, North Devon, Wells, Hazel Grove, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Richmond Park, (also Lab's Sheffield Hallam)
Read 4 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Carole, can you keep me out of your conspiracy theories. We did a UKIP membership survey. It is already in public domain, published by Cambridge Uni Press (bit.ly/2CKqNKd) I told you this yrs ago. Having seen your methods up close I am deeply sceptical of your journalism
I like how our EPOP (academic conference) slide is presented as some shadowy, secretive data thing. Ooh! Look! numbers! What is all this data! Where did it come from? It came from a membership survey, Carole. A standard, rather boring membership survey.
Here's the one my co-author did on Labour
amazon.co.uk/New-Labours-Gr…

And here is the one he did on the Conservatives
amazon.co.uk/True-Blues-Pol…

And here is the one on the Lib Dems
amazon.co.uk/Third-Force-Po…

Just fyi
Read 5 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Eurozone growth revised down. Germany deteriorating. Italy stagnating. Zombie banks. Ageing nations. Reforms missing. Talk of a "lost decade".

We obsess about internal political risk in Westminster. But external risk in EU is increasing. This is crucial backdrop to next 6 months
Some of the economic winds rushing through Europe are truly global: trade protectionism, the decline of China, shifting markets. But many are not: weak political leadership, failure to reform, ageing populations, productivity problems, corruption.
One lesson of the 2016 referendum is that many British voters care a lot more about external risks in the EU (threats to sovereignty, freedom of movement, lack of accountability) than domestic political considerations (what will leaving do to our own economy?)
Read 4 tweets

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Ben Chu
@BenChu_
NEW: Sources at Channel ferry companies have confirmed to @BBCNewsnight that they will NOT allow any UK truck bound for the Continent to board after a no-deal Brexit without FULL new required documentation...
...put this together with previous @BBCNewsnight revelations that two thirds of relevant UK exporters have not even got to STAGE ONE of no-deal preparation (applying for an EORI number)...bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
..and you have recipe for those feared long queues and traffic gridlock leading to UK ports...bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
8. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?

#Hypocrites #DoubleStandards #Liars #Warlords #USRealTerrorists
1. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world? 🤨👇🏼
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2. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world? 🤨👇🏼
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Read 95 tweets
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Mabalel
@Mabalel2
There *will* be a public enquiry even if we have to set it up and fund it ourselves. Here's something to bear in mind. In December 2016 the #BBC revealed private advice given to Ministers, by Sir Ivan Rogers, then our ambassador to the EU. Who leaked it?
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Who told the BBC? (I notice that John Redwood seemed pleased to see Rogers go.) On 3 January 2017, Rogers resigned. Was he forced? What on earth had Rogers done? He had told Ministers, CONFIDENTIALLY, that a UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to materialise.(Btw, he was right.)
Ministers insisted a deal could be done within 2 years. Well, they certainly got that wrong! Nicholas MacPherson, Civil Servant Mandarin, now a Crossbench Peer, said at the time [Rogers'] departure marked a "wilful" and "total destruction" of EU expertise within Whitehall.
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Joel Benjamin
@Gian_TCatt
The #BBC's @Hoskea10 digs into #LOBOloan bank debt at Sheffield City Council (from 27mins) bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… #Sheffield had to pay a £12.3m "breakage loan" to the Royal Bank of Scotland #RBS to escape a £20m loan.
Clive Betts, Chair of @CommonsCLG and a Sheffield MP said: "that the bank #RBS actually gets a double benefit, once for fiddling the #LIBOR interest rate, a second time when their council #LOBOloan interest rates go up" bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… #localgov #fraud
#Newham resident @rachel_shares said: "this country has to stand up to the financial institutions that made hundreds of millions of pounds out of them over the last decade. Who has the most power in this situation, #Barclays and #RBS, or Newham Council?" bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…
Read 4 tweets
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bpas
@bpas1968
The #BBC says it will not include abortion information on its Action Line website - a site that provides signposting for viewers seeking support on issues covered in their programmes - because it's too "contentious".

Our press release: bpas.org/about-our-char…
These organisations have written to the @BBC calling on them to reverse their stance. Read our letter in full here: bpas.org/media/3103/let…
The issue emerged after an episode of #CallTheMidwife, in which a woman died from an illegal backstreet abortion. Viewers visited BBC Action Line for support but were unable to find information on abortion.
Read 10 tweets

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