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Eurozone growth revised down. Germany deteriorating. Italy stagnating. Zombie banks. Ageing nations. Reforms missing. Talk of a "lost decade".
We obsess about internal political risk in Westminster. But external risk in EU is increasing. This is crucial backdrop to next 6 months
We obsess about internal political risk in Westminster. But external risk in EU is increasing. This is crucial backdrop to next 6 months
Some of the economic winds rushing through Europe are truly global: trade protectionism, the decline of China, shifting markets. But many are not: weak political leadership, failure to reform, ageing populations, productivity problems, corruption.
One lesson of the 2016 referendum is that many British voters care a lot more about external risks in the EU (threats to sovereignty, freedom of movement, lack of accountability) than domestic political considerations (what will leaving do to our own economy?)
The downturn will help PM Johnson over next 6-12 months. UK has many problems (though I'd argue has many baked-in, long-term structural advantages over many EU states). If benchmark is "how is EU doing?" then he will have a lot to point to, either at fresh election or 2nd EURef
