Thread by @AlanHill

@JH_Brexit Yates doesn't come across v. well, but doesn't refer to the government forecast specifically.
Roughly extrapolating from your graph, Robobank's analysis might be indicating extremely low growth but perhaps not, I'll concede, negative growth overall during the coming decade. 1/?

@JH_Brexit But he indicates he is ultimately using his own analysis, so strawman challenge is a fail here.
But what I now want to do is challenge an assumption, not in models but in your interpretation of it: that the success of an economy is determined by a growing GDP. 2/?

@JH_Brexit Not saying that I don't want GDP to grow; quite the opposite. I'm suggesting that the difference that the difference between a 1.5% & 2.25% annual GDP growth rate (as an example) are much bigger than you imply in terms of their effects on the majority of the population 3/?

@JH_Brexit Why is this? Well tax take is actually like to increase out of proportion to the rise. That means things like 'austerity programs' (which truthfully save relatively small amounts of money) become less 'necessary'; this is obviously better for the poorer in society. 4/?

@JH_Brexit Similarly recession (which we may already be in, & short-term effects of no-deal certainly increase risk of one) has a dreadful effect on ordinary people. The rich not so much; they can mop capital at a reduced price. The effects of negative growth aren't felt equally 5/?

@JH_Brexit So not to go and on, my basic point that this 8% less richness is
1) not something that we experience collectively in any real sense
2) That 'extra' growth is pulling more weight in terms of its utility than you think, if you care about the (working) poor & public services. 6/?

@JH_Brexit Epilogue; I do think the economic models have limitations & I don't think the political 'choices' that get made as a result of Brexit can or should be completely separated from Brexit itself. 7/?

@JH_Brexit Nor can the effects on the political culture, which I think do bring their own potential economic problems. Yates talks about this well longandvariable.wordpress.com/2018/12/11/why… 8/?

@JH_Brexit Epilogue 2; I will steelman a little. I did earlier see some nobody on some video (Grimes was there too) saying the government's analysis predicts no-deal would be catastrophic for the economy.
Now I'm not convinced that's a dominant narrative, but she did say it, I admit. 9/10

@JH_Brexit Now I wouldn't say it. But 'catastrophic' is subjective & I have at least painted a picture of how it could be deemed to be so given growth differentials govt. analysis outlines. It's relatively tame rhetoric frankly, at worst.

#Brexiteers: I warn you not to be ordinary.

10/10

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