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Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie
, 14 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
OK I've done this on and off, now starting a regular series:

NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 1 in a series
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 2 in a series
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 3 in a series
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 4 in a series
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 5 in a series

(h/t @DavidHenigUK)

railjournal.com/policy/no-deal…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 6 in a series

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cove…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 7 in a series

ft.com/content/eaa4ae…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended yet entirely foreeeable results of boneheaded trade policy
No. 8 in a series

anticorruptiondigest.com/2019/07/25/fre…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended but entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 9 in a series

ft.com/content/fd5388…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended but entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 10 in a series

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended but entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 11 in a series
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended but entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 12 in a series

(Featuring one of the best writers anywhere on China, former boss and all-round hero @JKynge)

ft.com/video/74311d7d…
NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended but entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 13 in a series
(h/t @dandrezner)

washingtonpost.com/business/econo…
@dandrezner NO-ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS: unintended but entirely foreseeable results of boneheaded trade policy.
No. 14 in a series
(h/t) @TheOpinionat0r

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
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Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie
John Bolton's, erm, "ambitious" sectoral trade deal idea might escape the clutches of WTO law for a while but would run smack into the US Congress. In fact it's mainly a foreign policy signal(from US side) and to sway gullible MPs and voters (from UK). Me: ft.com/content/34c5bb…
NB v quick thread on interesting wrinkle on attitudes to Ireland and UK in Washington. During the Troubles, State Dept and some foreign policy hawks were always more pro-UK for natsec reasons, as opposed to the largely Dem Irish-American caucus on the Hill. 1/n
Obviously since GFA those tensions have dissipated. In the meantime, not least because of that dissipation, the Irish-American caucus in Congress has become more bipartisan. That's not good news for the UK trying to get US support in case of a no-deal Brexit. 2/n
Read 5 tweets
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Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie
There’s a reason the US hasn’t called China a currency manipulator since the 1990s. It carries almost no sanction and thus merely makes you look angry and weak. So naturally Donald Trump went there. Me: ft.com/content/40a877… Also a quick thread on trade and currencies. 1/n
There are almost no binding rules to stop govts manipulating fx, despite vast effort by the Bush II and Obama admins to turn the IMF into a global currency sheriff and the G20 into its posse. (The US did have a reasonable case at the time, but failed to carry the day.) 2/n
It’s v hard to measure fx misalignment like a conventional trade distortion (subsidies/dumping), as there is no definitive methodology. The IMF thinks China’s real exchange rate is about fair value but could be +8.5% to -11.5% out. Really. imf.org/en/Publication… 3/n
Read 6 tweets
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Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie
In wake of Trump in UK, my Free Trade newsletter today is on global regulation & the fanciful Brexiter notion that WTO rules mean Britain can trade seamlessly with the EU even if it leaves the Single Market. Thread (WARNING CONTAINS CHLORINE CHICKEN): 1/n ft.com/content/b40528…
The argument is that product rules are increasingly set globally and that WTO law, specifically on technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary/phytosanitary standards (SPS), constrains governments from setting eg food regs not based on scientific evidence. 2/n
Thus the IEA report on UK trade post Brexit (they took it down after the Charity Commission said they breached charitable standards, but it’s here f.hypotheses.org/wp-content/blo…) says UK can litigate against EU to get its regs recognised, thus reducing need for border inspections. 3/n
Read 9 tweets

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Julie Laumann
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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Millennial Macro
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#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
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- Canada: 15.1%
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Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

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Read 232 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
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Read 21 tweets

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