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Three quick thoughts on the strategy of 'the opposition' should we find ourselves with a pre-Brexit general election. Thread. 1/
First, given our electoral system, some sort of pact or understanding, is essential. Brexit will, like it or not, be the transcendent issue in any pre-Brexit GE. 2/
Say, in any given constituency, that there are 2 pro hard Brexit candidates (BP and Con). And say that there is roughly 50% support for leave. 3/
In that scenario, if there is one pro remain candidate, the remain candidate will likely win. If there are 3 or more plausible remain candidates, they will all likely lose. 4/
If Con and BP are able to fashion some sort of electoral arrangement, the need for countervailing arrangements on the remain side increases. This should be very obvious. 5/
Second, I am not seeking to pretend that this will be easy. There are (as responses to the thread above illustrate) deep divisions between Labour, the LDs, and the nationalist parties in particular. 6/
The LDs went into coalition with the Tories. Labour supported the Iraq war. Corbyn's Brexit position has been incoherent. But step back: would the parties prefer to work together; or to face 5 years of a Boris Johnson government? 7/
If the prospect of Boris Johnson with an absolute majority doesn't concentrate minds, I fear that nothing will. The opportunities for an anti-Johnson alliance are there. 8/
Third (and last), a GE provides an opportunity to build a convincing counter-narrative; to make the case for stopping Brexit and remaining in the EU. That chance needs to be seized. 9/
The only outcomes of Brexit are: leaving with a deal (ie something very like the WA, perhaps with a softer PD); leaving without a deal; and not leaving at all. 10/
A GE win would deliver the winning party (or parties) a new mandate to deliver their preferred Brexit outcome. If it is remain, say so, and campaign on that basis. 11/
Do not muddy the waters talking about a people's vote. A PV (as a GE pitch) makes sense only if you are agnostic as between the possible outcomes. If you are, you shouldn't be in politics. 12/
It also relies on a Brexit option to put to the people against remain. What is that to be? It would be peak Brexit if (eg) the LDs won a GE, and then spent months trying to negotiate a new Brexit deal to put to the people for them to reject... 13/
Clearly, Labour is some way away from this position - it needs to think long and hard about whether it wants to be fighting a GE on a 'leaving with a deal' ticket (even if that is subject to a PV down the line). 14/
I rather think that those who want Brexit will back Johnson or Farage; and that those who do not want Brexit will back the LDs, Greens, NameChange or the Nationalists. 15/
There is a lot more which could be said; but the thread is already too long. In sum... a GE offers huge opportunities. It may come very soon. I hope the opposition is ready. 16/16
On the possibilities and difficulties here; see also this. theconversation.com/remain-allianc…
