Some quick thoughts on the #Brexit Political Declaration which we've all been reading and digesting.
(Shorter: unicorn hunters are goin to find themselves in a target-rich environment).
1/THREAD
(Shorter: unicorn hunters are goin to find themselves in a target-rich environment).
1/THREAD
First. We were promised "clouds of adjectives" and, guess what, the negotiating teams didn't disappoint...
....ambitious, broad, deep, flexible, wide-ranging, shared values, close bonds....
As my old Eng Lit prof used to say, "beware adjectives", sure sign of flabby thinking/2
....ambitious, broad, deep, flexible, wide-ranging, shared values, close bonds....
As my old Eng Lit prof used to say, "beware adjectives", sure sign of flabby thinking/2
But in this case, it was designedly so....you only need to read to Paragraph 4 to see what's happened.
As with the Joint Report Paras 49 and 50, impossible and contradictory worlds are yoked together. /3
As with the Joint Report Paras 49 and 50, impossible and contradictory worlds are yoked together. /3
The key word here, and for the entire document, is "balance".
Read those two competing lists of redlines and ambitions in that paragraph and we are back where we started. Where we have been. /4
Read those two competing lists of redlines and ambitions in that paragraph and we are back where we started. Where we have been. /4
The 21-months of 2019 and 2020 are going to be a repeat of the learning experience of the last 21-months.
There are trade offs to be made between sovereignty and access.
Which is why, behind the adjectival blizzard lies hard caveats... /5
There are trade offs to be made between sovereignty and access.
Which is why, behind the adjectival blizzard lies hard caveats... /5
...those key phrases like
"to the extent possible"
"with exceptions and limitations as appropriate"
"respecting the integrity of their respective markets and legal orders...."
Which brings us to the second most important word after "balance".... /6
"to the extent possible"
"with exceptions and limitations as appropriate"
"respecting the integrity of their respective markets and legal orders...."
Which brings us to the second most important word after "balance".... /6
....and that word is "spectrum".
Para 28 on checks and controls talks about a "spectrum of different outcomes"....which is why this document can be construed as a 'win' for Theresa May.
It defers choices, yes...but it also keeps options wide open. /7
Para 28 on checks and controls talks about a "spectrum of different outcomes"....which is why this document can be construed as a 'win' for Theresa May.
It defers choices, yes...but it also keeps options wide open. /7
Of course, you can be the judge of likely outcomes here...
On Ireland (Para 27) the options are left open to the full spectrum of technological fixes listed in Para 26.
As one source says, the Brexiteers "get to have a crack" - and with EU Commission approval. /8
On Ireland (Para 27) the options are left open to the full spectrum of technological fixes listed in Para 26.
As one source says, the Brexiteers "get to have a crack" - and with EU Commission approval. /8
Of course, it is undergirded (Para 139) by a commitment to the Good Friday Agreement "in all its parts"
But since Brexiteers think the border issue is imaginary and can be fixed without infrastructure, well...bonne chance. /9
But since Brexiteers think the border issue is imaginary and can be fixed without infrastructure, well...bonne chance. /9
Similarly on fish, the UK get's a 'win' by keeping the 'spectrum' open. French efforts to get a commitment to 'status quo' access for EU fleets written into the PD has failed.
But I draw your attention to Para 76... and that date July 2020. /10
But I draw your attention to Para 76... and that date July 2020. /10
That's the crunch date for deciding if we extend transition, go to backstop or ratify a deal.
So a natural pressure point where FR, ES and others get to press their stated ambition of retaining "status quo" access for their fleets.
So another ratchet.... /11
So a natural pressure point where FR, ES and others get to press their stated ambition of retaining "status quo" access for their fleets.
So another ratchet.... /11
Which has quickly raised concerns among Scottish MPs who want 'taking back control' to mean a radical revision of quotas.... /12
So in short, there's things for Brexiteers to embrace here - IF they are so minded.
Again, as noted in several previous threads, the law of Brexit are immutable. The choices do not go away, even in a 'no deal' or a 'pivot to Norway.' /13
Again, as noted in several previous threads, the law of Brexit are immutable. The choices do not go away, even in a 'no deal' or a 'pivot to Norway.' /13
And lets not forget, crucially for Brexiteers, the PD stands firm on Free Movement.
So this is Brexit:
A customs-union based trade deal, that costs 4-5% GDP over 10 years (0.5% a year) to deliver incremental cut in EU migration. /14
So this is Brexit:
A customs-union based trade deal, that costs 4-5% GDP over 10 years (0.5% a year) to deliver incremental cut in EU migration. /14
Seems to me that's a bit of a wet fart, but saleable on the doorsteps in 2022 if you're a Tory MP - more so than chaos, or 2nd ref's etc.
Time to choose. ENDS/15
Time to choose. ENDS/15
