Thread by @lewis_goodall

*****POLLS HAVE CLOSED IN BRECON AND RADNORSHIRE*****

I can finally talk about it and by God, for me, I can tell you, it's a relief.

First up, what should we be expecting? (THREAD)

The basics:

-Largest constituency in Wales (or England)
-Result expected around 2.30am

On paper, this should be a LibDem gain. The local MP has been recalled after expenses fraud and he's standing again. The LibDems are on a roll and have held the seat on and off since the last by-election here in 1985. They also hold the Welsh Assembly seat.

1983: Tory (maj. 8764)
1985 [by-election]: Liberal (559)
1987: Liberal (56)
1992: Tory (130
1997: Lib Dem (5097)
2001: Lib Dem (751)
2005: Lib Dem (3905)
2010: Lib Dem (3747)
2015: Tory (5102)
2017: Tory (8036)

That said, as you can see 2017 saw the biggest Con maj since 83.

That is a big majority they're looking to overturn. Would need a swing of 9.8%. Not an insignificant feat. They've been averaging 10.5% in parliamentary by-elections in 2017 (figs via @roger_scully). Tight but should be doable, given conditions and local strength.

@roger_scully Talking to voters here, it's clear the Lib Dems have swarmed this constituency with activists. Some have told me they've been called upon half a dozen times today alone by the party. Several have used the same phrase to me: "they've thrown the kitchen sink at it."

@roger_scully Nonetheless, Lib Dems from the top down are nervous. It'll be a huge blow if they don't win this. They're worried about a "Boris bounce". Indeed, anecdotally the feeling is here that there has been a clear swing among Leave voters back to the Tories in the last week.

@roger_scully There's also been some disquiet about the Lib Dem candidate. Some voters have told me she's not local (she's from Wrexham and lives in the Monmouthshire constituency). Others have said there were better candidates and she's cost them votes. We'll see.

@roger_scully Tonight is also a big test for one of the first big forays into electoral pacts we've seen in British politics for some time. Plaid, Greens, Reform have stood aside for the Lib Dems under a so-called "Remain Alliance." If it works, it might be replicated, if not....

@roger_scully Brexit Party sources meanwhile are massively downplaying expectations. They know there's been a swing behind the Tories among exactly the sort of voters who went for them in the Euros. They'll be hoping for something respectable just to keep the pressure up...

@roger_scully In many ways, if it's narrow result, and BXP just cost the Tories the seat that will be ideal for them.

@roger_scully Labour meanwhile, are a bit of a sideshow here. They haven't won the seat since October 1974 (they came close in 1985). They've put in a token effort but we assume their voter share is going to go down (17% in 2017) as remainers swing behind the LDs.

@roger_scully Interestingly, Brecon and Radnorshire voted almost exactly the same as the country in the referendum 51.9% vs 48.1%.

@roger_scully And turnout looks like it's going to be high. There's been a great deal of interest locally and talking to polling station officers throughout the day it's been very solid. Could be over 65% (v high for a by election). 1985 by election was v high too: 79.4%.

@roger_scully All in all, should be a cracker. A lot riding on this one. If Lib Dems win govt's working majority is reduced to one (or three really if we assume Charlie Elphicke will continue to vote with the govt). If the Tories win (or run v close) odds of election (already high) will 🔼🔼🔼