Thread by @lewis_goodall

***BRECON AND RADNORSHIRE 2019 BY ELECTION RESULT***

CONSERVATIVE (Davies): 12,401
LABOUR (Davies): 1,680
LIB DEM (Dodds): 13,826
BREXIT (Parkinson): 3,331
UKIP (Philips): 242
LOONY (Pink Lady): 334

****Lib Dem: GAIN****

Maj: 1425

The government’s working majority in Parliament has just dropped to one.

Firstly a real victory for the Lib Dems. They should have won the seat but it was a big story majority. They’re thrilled.

They now actually have a seat in Wales, something they haven’t had since 2017.

The “remain alliance” obviously helped matters. Without it majority would have been tighter.

Overall Lib Dems owe this victory to mining the Labour (remain) vote. They barely kept their deposit.

Lib Dems will say this is a big victory for remain. Indeed overturning a big Tory majority, as the clear remain party, in the fortnight the Tories with a new PM effectively committed themselves to no deal, is a huge psychological (+parliamentary) boost to remain forces.

If it were the other way around and the Lib Dems has lost a seat to the Brexit Party/Tories that is certainly how it would be portrayed.

Although...bear this in mind:

Parties pledged to remain/PV: 43.5% (LD)

Parties pledged to leave without a deal if necessary: 50.3% (Cons/BXP/UKIP)

Even if you add Labour to LD score it’s only 48.7%

So Leave= 50.3% Remain=48.7%

Basically how B&R voted in the referendum.

For anyone wondering the remainder is the Monster Raving Loony Party who are...harder to characterise.

Tory vote held up alright in the circumstances. They won't be completely distraught . Nonetheless Brexit Party (who did badly and lost votes back to the Tories) still cost them the seat. It will give succour to hard Brexiter Tories who say they have to press on with no deal.

But there's another lesson for the Tories here too. There are scores of Lib Dem/Tory seats. Those seats form basis of only majority they've had since 1992. Lib Dem resurgence costs them-badly.

In the meantime Boris Johnson's government hangs by a thread, though a thicker thread than the headlines might suppose given Elphicke will keep voting with the government and there are a few independents who might do so too when it comes to the crunch.

Still, plenty of crucial Brexit votes have come down to a single vote. There are more to come. It could well be that this election is of true historic importance.

As I've tweeted elsewhere, Boris Johnson now boasts the unfortunate distinction of being the prime minister to lose a seat in a by-election faster than any other for over a century.

But in sum, Brecon confirms one of the big political themes of 2019. A true Lib Dem fightback which significantly changes the calculus of the electoral battle, for both the Tories and Labour.

Who'd have thunk it?

So, is it too late for this?

Answer: no

Night (or more likely) morning all.