Thread by @Nate_Cohn

Something that has interested me in recent months: Trump's approval rating has increased a bit in live interview polls, both surpassing the online polls (for the first time) and reaching the highest levels of term
nytimes.com/2019/08/07/ups…

I often see a 2016-based view of 2020 in my replies. They take Trump '16 support, and then say Dems can win with incremental changes like higher black turnout or a better candidate.
I don't think that assumption works, in part bc Trump is also stronger than he was in '16

And again, none of this means Trump is favored. His ratings are well under 50. He'll probably lose if he's at 45/55 with RVs and I'm pretty agonistic on his chances over the long term.
But all of this strikes me as pretty important for the way to think about his position

If you're a Dem, for instance, who thinks all you need to do is boost black turnout to something closer to '12, I would caution that this may no longer be what it takes to win. It's not '16 anymore.

If you're a GOPer who thinks Trump can count on a hidden Trump vote, I'd note that the case for it is basically gone at this point. Trump now does better in the live polls.

If you're convinced that Trump can't win over additional supporters, I'd caution that it sure seems like he's done quite a bit of it already. IDK if he can keep going, but it's hard to say he can't