Profile picture
baufinanciaphaster 👹
@bauhiniacapital
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Several statements here.

1) "Dollar shortage acute in China".
I admit IDK. 🇨🇳entities obtain and use dollars outside of 🇨🇳.

2) "HSBC caught lending some $400-700B [to 🇨🇳]"
I have seen exactly ZERO data to back this up.

3) SO Banks buying $ in ONshore fwds.
Huh? Really?
Is it possible China has a shortage of $? Sure. Will it be difficult for Chinese corps and banks to roll offshore funding? Sure. Was it last year too? Sure.

The HSBC rumor. Puhleeez show your data. ANY data.
Are you suggesting HSBC fired their CEO because of this and THEN...
had their board sign off on their Q2/H1 numbers which don't show such an increase in lending, or deriv exposure? Are you suggesting they lied to UK, US, and HK banking regulators?
And SO banks are buying USDCNY onshore fwds? The RTRS article literally says they're doing the opposite.

Next, doing buy-sell swaps then supporting the yuan on a forward basis sucks USD from some corners of China into other corners. It does not change the "China $ shortage."
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to baufinanciaphaster 👹
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @bauhiniacapital see all

Profile picture
baufinanciaphaster 👹
@bauhiniacapital
Someone I follow RTed or Liked or Something-ed a tweet where I clicked on the blog post and added to my tabs to read later.

A few weeks later I am getting around to it.

Am I going to get myself into trouble again?
It has to do with a post by Ben @EpsilonTheory which contains the money-quote...

"What MIFID II revealed is that sell-side research just isn’t worth much. It’s just not."

epsilontheory.com/the-most-valua…
Nota Bene: The commentary itself is about a Pensions & Investments commentary which ALSO has issues.
pionline.com/article/201906…
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
baufinanciaphaster 👹
@bauhiniacapital
Dear Emma,

There are issues with your tweets here. A bunch of them in fact.

About HIBOR, the press, mortgages, defaults, the peg, and how it works.
1) To those saying the local press in Hong Kong is not talking about the spike in HIBOR...

I urge you to google "HIBOR" news over the last 24hrs.
I assure you they are.
I'd ask... if the local press is not talking about it... how did you see it?

2) HIBOR, "which blew through 3%."
Which HIBOR?

12m and 6m HIBOR are not overly jumpy. 3m is a little jumpier.
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
baufinanciaphaster 👹
@bauhiniacapital
People need to take a chill pill and @Jkylebass needs to understand how money works in HK.

1) There is a US$10bn IPO which launched yesterday and prices/closes in one week.

Big IPOs take money out of the system. Big and popular IPOs take a LOT of money out of the system.
2) This is not new. It happens again and again. EVERY decent professional investor who knows the HK market and monetary system will have observed this. Again and again.

HKMA wrote a decent paper on this 10yrs ago. Method is described within (p2 onward).
hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publ…
3) There is no "lawlessness." If HIBOR O/N and HIBOR 1W rise quite a bit, HIBOR 1mo will rise also, b/c 1mo contains the 1D and 1W. This is basic depo/funding curve arithmetic.

4) 1M is +29bp today b/c 2W is +61bp. Means the other 16-17 days of 1M are only up TINY.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Thread of 3 Articles: Does #China have enough #US dollars to survive the US #tradewar? - China’s US$3.1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves may not be sufficient to support a crisis in the economy, analysts say scmp.com/economy/china-…
This is the first article in a three-part series looking at China’s US dollar shortage risks amid the trade war with the United States as it plans to reform and internationalise its economy.
Beijing’s increasing scrutiny of US dollar usage by Chinese companies & individuals, in the absence of any signs of a financial crisis, + accelerating efforts to lure in foreign capital, have raised suspicions that the China's economy is worried about running short of US dollars.
Read 44 tweets
Profile picture
Emma Muhleman CFA CPA
@EmmaMuhleman1
Just wrote a 10 msg response to a long chat we've been having around the Fed/Powell, same old stuff, hence my long response to lay it all out there. Thought I'd share with the rest of you, please do share your thoughts as well. Here we go. For those ready for a book. #Dollar #Fed
1\ Did you read the report from the NYFed issued in Jan? Doesn't suggest NIRP anytime soon, the opposite actually. Here's the facts: 1) the Fed is backed into a corner and can never actually "normalize" rates, & 2) Powell's intentions are relevant only in S/T because, 2\
2\ as we all know, we will (ultimately) have another painful sell-off in equities. The Fed is horrified by the prospect of such an event due to the resulting implosion of underfunded (an unfunded) pensions, entitlement programs & retirement funds across the US that'd result. 3\
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Thread: The Bank of #China is asking customers with #US dollars to exchange them for the local RMB currency, and giving rewards to those that do. This is an indication that the trade balance is getting tight due to the #tradewar and China needs to raise more foreign currency.
Here is further confirmation that #China is short of dollars - Why is #US dollar access so restrained in China as trade war rages on? Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks because of financial risks amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…
Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks given worries about financial risks amid the trade war - China holding onto US dollars by increasingly restricting business and individual transfers out of the country.
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
MissMAGA2016
@MissMaga2016
WaPo, who allows the government of #China to publish propaganda in their paper, is now advocating to let China spy on us.
Here’s more on those China publications

dailycaller.com/2017/12/16/was…
BTW, #China is already spying on #NYC thru Hikvision

H/T to @BenKTallmadge

Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
Profile picture
Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
hearing—"#China's Worldwide #Military Expansion" is a dramatic bellwether of growing concerns in Washington & beyond.

Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
bit.ly/HouseIC
CAPT Jim Fanell, USN Ret, former @USPacificFleet N2:

"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
"By 2030, it is estimated [by Fanell & @SCheneyPeters in their chapter in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute's Chinese Naval Shipbuilding volume amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-… @USNIBooks that] the PLANavy will consist of some 550 ships: 450 surface ships & 99 submarines."
Read 71 tweets

Trending hashtags

#USD #UnitedStates #Gaddafi #Audio #China #PAFMM #Argentine #CUBA #Newsbud #Canada #Assassination #SPX #noose #Trump #Vietnam #Manufacturing #EU #GlobalSupport #JAMAICA #Obama #money #Property #Argentina #Erdogan #Malaysia
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!