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A medium-sized thread on the Irish government’s position on the backstop.
Irish public opinion is still supportive of the government’s position on Brexit but there is an increasing drumbeat of newspaper columnists suggesting they should back down in order to secure a withdrawal agreement deal with the UK.
The backstop is criticised in terms of “it is going to cause the thing it was supposed to prevent – a hard border”
I’m not a backstop fundamentalist but I think the arguments for compromise on the backstop are actually weaker than ever before.
I have always had reservations about imposing a backstop on NI on the grounds that it could be considered undemocratic. In November 2017, I suggested holding a referendum to let NI decide whether it wanted to stay in the CU and SM. karlwhelan.com/blog/?p=1756
In January of this year, I suggested putting a potential time limit on the backstop subject to a later referendum where NI’s citizens could decide whether they wanted the arrangement to continue. karlwhelan.com/blog/?p=1897
At the time I made these proposals, it seemed like these might answer questions about the democratic legitimacy of the backstop and perhaps get the WA over the line in the House of Commons.
But now, it is hard to see how any backstop-related concession will get the WA passed. Brexiteer Tories that had previously signed up to the Brady amendment (suggesting they’d vote for WA if the backstop was changed) are now determined to push for No Deal.
And the Johnson government has also walked away from other aspects of the WA such as “level playing field commitments.” So I don’t think reasonable concessions would actually get the WA passed by a Johnson government.
Even if a concession on the backstop miraculously managed to get the WA passed, this would only buy a short transition period without a hard border. And the idea that avoiding a border was crucially important to the EU would have been conceded.
In this scenario, the hard border happens in 12 or 18 months time and with less emphasis from the EU26 in its various negotiations with the UK on ending the hard border (since Ireland will have conceded the principle). This is probably a worse outcome than No Deal in November
So while the Irish government should have perhaps shown a bit more flexibility in the past, there is little reason for them to concede on the backstop issue now.
