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The dirty little secret of the 2020 election is that a LOT of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents agree with Trump on both pocketbook AND social issues. Many of them severely dislike him personally and want a moderate Dem opponent who will give them Trump issues without Trump.
Part of Biden's staying power in the primary is the sense that he might be that candidate. He risks it by kowtowing to the hard Left in the primary, but the wavering Dems don't think he means it when he does that stuff. They'll give him room to pander until he locks it up.
The surprise awaiting analysts who bank on Trump being incurably toxic to everyone except his most enthusiastic supporters is that he's still a charismatic presence on the campaign trail. He will make a surprising number of Dems forget why they're supposed to hate him.
Around the wavering Dems orbits a very large belt of alienated conservative Dems, independents, and wavering Republicans who will vote for Trump to protect themselves from left-wing radicalism. The Left tricked itself into forgetting how large this group is.
Give Trump an opponent that doesn't scare the crap out of those people, and their support for him will waver. Biden will try to be that guy, and the media will help him. A lot of Dem primary voters think ONLY Biden could be that guy, even if they personally lean further Left.
But here's the problem: the Internet and Trump's campaign are going to remind the vast throng of nervous voters about the nutty things Biden said to pander to the hard Left during the primary. The nervous voters, unlike strategy-minded Dems, won't allow Biden room to pander.
The Dems no longer have the monolithic control of information needed to bury what their candidates say during the primaries, and Trump is not going to politely forget about those comments and positions, or be intimidated out of harping on them, as Repubs usually are.
This wouldn't be so bad if Biden just had to lean a little bit Left to sew up the primary, but the positions he's flirting with are absolutely terrifying to working-class voters and moderates worried about aggressive social engineering.
Those people have been bullied and intimidated out of discussing their concerns in public - i.e. all criticism of Democrat open-borders madness is "racism" - but they WILL vote in private on their fears. It's a phenomenon sweeping the democratic world.
Assuming he doesn't self-destruct in the primary, Biden needs to end up as a candidate that doesn't make nervous voters flee to Trump for protection. It's a mistake to think this will be based purely on economics and Biden can win by promising not to raise taxes. /end
