Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

There are many reasons why Trump might lose in 2020. His scandals. His bigotry. A looming recession.

Even so, I think that it is at this stage more likely than not that he will reelection.

Here’s why.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

[Thread.]

The single most influential metric of Trump’s chances is the @fivethirtyeight tracker of his job approval. It seems to show good news:

• Trump is significantly underwater.
• He has been continually underwater since his second month in office.

@FiveThirtyEight But poor approval ratings at this stage are not nearly as big a bar to reelection as most people assume.

Trump’s current approval ratings are very similar to those of… Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan at the same stage in their first terms!

@FiveThirtyEight More importantly, Trump has *always* been unpopular.

Today, 55 percent of Americans say they have an unfavorable view of Trump.

In November 2016, 59 percent of Americans said they had a negative view.

➼ Trump is more popular now than he was the day he beat Hillary Clinton!

@FiveThirtyEight An election is a choice, not a referendum. So how do Democrats do in most head-to-head polls? Broadly speaking:

* Biden leads comfortably.
* Sanders leads narrowly.
* Everyone else is neck-to-neck: ahead in some polls, behind in others.

@FiveThirtyEight As @natesilver points out, early polls are a poor predictor of the future. BUT

1) They provide a good gut check on our intuitions: Right now, Dems aren’t favored.

2) Early polls have become more predictive over time: 11% margin of error since 1945, 6% since 2000, 2% since 2012.

@FiveThirtyEight @natesilver A lot can change in either direction. But who’s more likely to improve their relative standing in the coming 15 months?

If there’s one important point in this thread, it’s this one: Barring an economic meltdown or huuuge scandal, Trump's standing is more like to improve.

Why?

@FiveThirtyEight @natesilver Trump is a known quantity. For the past years, he has - for good and depressing reason - been attacked from every angle.

What new scandal, and which new attack ad, is supposed to turn voters who have stuck with Trump through all of that against him?

The likely answer: none.

@FiveThirtyEight @natesilver But *all* Democratic candidates are likely to become less popular over time.

Republicans have not concentrated their very effective propaganda machine against any one them. Once they do, they are likely to do serious damage.

That’s what happened to Hillary in 2016.

@FiveThirtyEight @natesilver These attacks may hurt less well-known candidates – Buttigieg, Harris, etc. – especially badly.

But everyone is vulnerable. And it may already be happening: After being very popular for a long time, the popularity of both Biden and Sanders is underwater in recent polls.

@FiveThirtyEight @natesilver Since 1945, nine presidents have sought a second term in office. Of these:

• Six were reelected.
• Two had succeeded presidents of their own political party.
• The only "anomaly", Carter, was facing unusually heavy headwinds: a recession plus the hostage crisis.

@FiveThirtyEight @natesilver Trump is an abnormal president. It's perfectly possible that he will also prove abnormal in a more prosaic way—by losing his bid for reelection.

But what is eminently possible need not be likely.

Please read (and share) the full article @TheAtlantic!

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…