Thread by @pmdfoster

In that meeting Sherpa David Frost made presentation entitled “Approach to engagement with the EU on renegotiation” - in which the repeated idea was to "run down the clock". That was adopted as 'formal policy'. /4

It was difficult to see what the actual detail of a new deal would be - since @BorisJohnson had alread ruled out a) time-limit b) exit clause as insufficient.

So how did he know that wasn't a serious renegotation gambit? Well because the Attorney General told him! /5

@BorisJohnson That happened on Aug 1, at meeting of XS to discuss implications of July 29 meeting.

Cox told Johnson it was "complete fantasy" that EU would drop backstop - and that taking that route would lead to "path to no deal" /6

@BorisJohnson At the same time, Whitehall could see that there was - is - no serious preparation for a negotiated deal.

Indeed per two highly placed sources Cummings described the EU negotiation process as a "sham".

Downing Street, on behalf of Mr Cummings says this is a "categoric lie" /7

@BorisJohnson Well. All I can say is that I 'stand by my reporting' - I will never reveal sources, but I'd stake the detail and accuracy of all of the above and three years of consistent reporting on #Brexit on the double-sourcing of this.

Are there two 'fantasists' out there? /8

@BorisJohnson Of course, I recall that I once wrote a story saying that Olly Robbins was discreetly sounding out Brussels on a 'no deal' extension - that was a categoric lie too - until it wasn't.

So it's 'he said, she said'. I'll leave regular readers to make judgements. /9

@BorisJohnson If you want a sense of that reporting history (I've done pretty much bugger all else) then you can read this long read in @prospect_uk
magazine.

prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/peter…

But lets get back to substance.... /10

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk ...because Johnson says the chances of a deal are 'rising'

@michaelgove says the EU is "shifting"...

Both plead for more time for their 'deal' strategy to work. And yet there is not substance to the 'plan' - other than 'run down the clock'. /11

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove You might have heard some talk about "sectoral deals' or 'aligning SPS' or legal texts...but talk to those responsible for delivering "operable realities" (a posh word for stuff that people and businesses can actually use) and it junk. /11

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove The SPS plan is only on DUP agreement (no way) and anyway only fixes 30 per cent of border issues.

The legal text is, per source, the backstop with the meaninful clauses crossed out.

NOTHING has been put on table./12

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove But what about those talks which Frost is going to attend in Brussels on Wednesday..well, they discussed the 'plan' for those at the XS meeting last week.

Frost reminded the 'six' of the plan to run down the clock and said the talks were for "domestic handling reasons". /13

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove Now, it seems clear that there might be divisions between Cummings and Johnson about what is possible, about the "abundant techincal fixes" that Mr Johnson believes in - but there is no sign of any of them.

This might be why, at the same meeting.../14

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove It was agreed to Frost should try to open a 'no deal mitigation' track to run in parallel with the supposed 'deal negotiation'

They will, per EU sources, get the same answer they did when they tried this in August. "No".

As @MichelBarnier said, 'no mini-deals' /15

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove @MichelBarnier Now, ultimately, no one can completely rule out the Trumpian 'reverse-ferret'...where Johnson settles for something cosmetic, declares it a "tremendous success" and then dares Parliament not to vote for it.

But to be clear, there is no evidence of that /16

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove @MichelBarnier MPs pondering the sincerity of ministers promises that a 'deal is in the wind' should ask themselves, 'what deal?' What does it look like? Where are the texts and the documents?

Because Whitehall is flat out drafting 'mini deals' they 'hope' the EU will accept /17

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove @MichelBarnier I understand that internally Cummings and his camp actually argue that the Oct 17 #EUCO should be used not to force a deal, but to force the EU to agree to mini-deals to soften a 'no deal'. /18

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove @MichelBarnier Either the plan is to get a deal - unlikely, since even AG Cox says the current abolish the backstop plan is "complete fantasy"....OR it's to give the impression of wanting a deal while the clock runs down. /19

@BorisJohnson @prospect_uk @michaelgove @MichelBarnier Ultimately everyone has to decide for themselves, but they should do so on basis of available evidence, not warm words or wishful thinking.... MPs must decide too. Big week. 20/ENDS