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1/ So, what do EU officials and diplomats think of Boris Johnson's announcement today that he'll prorogue Parliament? Their reaction has been a mixture of trepidation, gloom, but also some lingering hopes that the British PM has a trick up his sleeve to deliver a deal. Belt up...
2/ The initial reaction was that this move has potentially increased the risk of No Deal. One source says that 'the mood was more optimistic yesterday than it is today'. There are still severe reservations in Brussels about the PM's motives and whether he really wants a deal.
3/ An EU source said the bloc expected PM Johnson to use his self-imposed 30-day deadline to 'make headway' in Parliament towards a majority for a deal. Instead he has opted to play 'a massive game of chicken' with MPs which, as they see it, 'could pretty nastily backfire'.
4/ EU source: 'There’s also a strong sense that No Deal has just become even more of a likely possibility than it was before. Considering at the moment there hasn’t been anything of real content [on the backstop] there’s always that doubt over whether he’s serious about a deal.'
5/ Meetings between EU officials and the PM's sherpa David Frost today, which yielded no new ideas on the backstop, have added to that sense. Source: 'It sounds like the whole plan is just to leave everything until the last minute and then cross your fingers and hope it works.'
6/ EU officials and diplomats don't expect new UK proposals anytime soon, not least because they'd almost certainly leak out. They also suspect the Government 'might want a helping hand in trying to find solutions' rather than coming up with an entire border plan on its own.
7/ This is especially sensitive because they believe the prorogation move may well be all about securing an early election. The idea being PM Johnson, if he wins it, would then come back to Brussels at the end of October seeking a last-minute deal. That is fraught with danger.
8/ EU official: 'Always there's the question is this about trying to get the election he wants. If that helps deliver a smooth exit good. Looking at the parliamentary arithmetic the initial calculation on our side is this means it’s got to be an extension or No Deal.'
9/ But some EU diplomats take a more optimistic stance and say there has been a shift of opinion in capitals. 'Merkel will be the key as she's the one who really wants a deal. The new reality is that Member States at least want to look at what Boris comes up with.'
10/ EU diplomat: 'The window is now the second half of October. You can't do a deal on the night, but maybe in a week if all the groundwork is there. We've got to make sure whatever the ideas are that they work so we don't leave a gaping hole in the back of the Single Market.'
11/ That would necessitate another emergency summit at the end of October, as the 17th would likely come too soon after a snap election. And add into the mix that Merkel has made clear she'd really like to know a month before exit day whether there's going to be a deal or not.
12/ For now, there is set to be 'brainstorming' on both sides of the Channel over possible compromises but no formal negotiations. The EU will also continue its No Deal planning with a series of new seminars for Member States from mid-September. We're headed for a frantic finish.
