, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A bit late to this but lets revisit the disaster that is QEP. Going back several years they’ve tried their damnedest to get more oily. Since 2015 they’ve made $1.6B in property acquisitions. (After a $1B Permian buy in 2014). From 2015 thru 2018 they’ve spent ~$4.1B in CAPEX.
In 2014 oil production was 47mbopd. Q2 2019 oil production was 57mbopd. A 10mbopd increase after $5.7B in spending. 5.7 billion dollars.
Maybe after all this the balance sheet is cleaned up. Nope. Q4 2015 net debt $1.81B and Q2 2019 net debt $1.98B. Won’t get below 2X debt/EBITDA until 2021 per QEP guidance which is questionable at best.
Proceeds from asset sales 2015 to 2019 $1.77B. Those divested properties made about 60mboe/d, 40% of company production (mostly gas though). Since those proceeds didn’t go to debt reduction returned to shareholders it was all spent on wells and acquisitions.
Or, maybe, it went somewhere else? Lets check G&A. Avg 2015-2018 $188mm/yr or about $3.5/boe ($752mm total). Q2 2019 run rate G&A down to about $120mm/yr but remember they sold 40% of production.
G&A/BOE now stands at $4+/boe (for comparison PXD is about $2.63 in Q2 2019). Oh they also have had to sell the corporate aircraft. Poor bastards.
Early this year they hired a new CEO, from noted agile and low-cost operator BHP Billiton. I'm sure he's ready to get into the nitty gritty and turn things around.
Well even if they overpaid at least they have good acreage. Maybe? They sure aren’t getting the results their neighbors are. P50 wells are underperforming by ~30% on 12mo cumulative basis. Given these wells results it’s unlikely they are achieving their target rates of return.
None of this even touches on the shit show battle with Elliot, failed Bakken sale, and failed sale of company. IMO the board needs to take their medicine, send management to the house, and take what they can get.
Absent a major improvement in well results and cost structure, continued value erosion is all but inevitable. QEP perfectly encapsulates the double whammy of bad management. Overpriced acquisitions + underwhelming well results=Capital Destruction. END
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