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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Emerging from lunch in Bxl. So it seems November election likely after all opposition parties agree to delay approving contest until Article 50 extension has been approved at 17-18 European Council. How will @BorisJohnson now honour his pledge not to seek extension? 1/3
Several options under consideration, including: asking Queen not to give Royal Assent to extension Bill; refusing to implement it; asking another EU member state to veto extension; attaching conditions (eg will disrupt EU) that would make EU more reluctant/deny extension or 2/3
passing no-confidence vote in own Govt in hope that leads to election. None of them good options 3/3
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
As usual, an excellent piece by @GeorgeWParker, @JamesBlitz & @PickardJE. A few observations, based on meetings in Bxl over the last several days 1/3

ft.com/content/722e3f… via @financialtimes
It's a shame @BorisJohnson didn't shift his focus to Bxl immediately after G7 in Biarritz. Could have had more success. Since then, EU appetite for deal has fallen: 1) due to Govt's position on LPF; 2) weaker parliamentary majority & 3) fact that EU side knows election is looming
All will negatively weigh on EU's willingness to move on backstop. Per my earlier thread, small window that presented itself post-Biarritz hasn't shut, but it has definitely gotten smaller
ENDS
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Interesting, blue skies thinking by Pete. After meets in Bxl, where is EU now? As I wrote pre-Biarritz, @BorisJohnson did have positive impact in Berlin & Paris. That encouraged small movement on EU side - some tactical, also genuine. Seems to have now been undone by Frost 1/
As one senior EU official says, BJ showed "determination to get a deal done. That's why Merkel moved. If UK wanted a serious, substantive relationship, it would have been easier to allow something on Island of Ireland that wasn't bullet proof. One leak on dike would have been OK"
But @DavidGHFrost seems to have "undercut" the "good impression" Johnson left. Key issue is LPF. Govt argument is not that EU shouldn't expect it in all sectors, but that it won't apply in *any* sector. Yikes. Market access will only be commensurate with LPF provisions 3/
Read 7 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
After 3 days in Bxl, don't think there can be any doubt about who is now running things here & in EU: France & @EmmanuelMacron. Won't say more now, but his run - Euro elections; vdL Commission/EU leadership team & G7, far from over. In fact, may just be getting started. Good 1/4
Next @EU_Commission will have several real political heavyweights: @GoulardSylvie @PaoloGentiloni @dreynders @TimmermansEU @vestager. Unlike @JunckerEU, who had a significantly weaker College, @vonderleyen is going to have much bigger, more substantive egos to deal with 2/4
vdL's distribution of portfolios will be known next week. Expect some surprises. @Europarl_EN will then determine which Committees quiz which nominee. Questions will be sent to each. They'll have some time to prepare written responses, before oral hearings late Sept/early Oct 3/4
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
This'll be Monday's #ClassicDom 5D #Brexit chess...

- Govt brings a VONC against itself

- Tory MPs vote for VONC

- All oppo parties vote against (i.e. they DO have Confidence in Govt), so VONC fails

- Tory MPs lose whip because they voted for VONC - Tory Party fully destroyed
(Rationale: Govt might want to bring VONC against itself so as to trigger an election, but Labour and opposition parties want to delay. But how? By having confidence!)

Inspiration for the tweet from @scandifriend @neilrholmes @JohnJCrace
@scandifriend @neilrholmes @JohnJCrace Note people this was a JOKE!

(In these odd days some people thought I was serious!)
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Broadly speaking the parties have the following approaches to a General Election

CONSERVATIVES
Want it as soon as possible, and ideally 15 Oct

OPPOSITION PARTIES
Want it after 31 October
The problem for the opposition parties is if the election is called Monday 9 Sept, a 15 Oct General Election is what you get

Delay calling a General Election until after prorogation has ended on 14 Oct means opposition parties are branded cowards, chickens etc. until then
How do you square this?

This cunning plan from Simon Banfield might just be the solution
Read 7 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
A lot of debate here about how the opposition should react if Johnson (as predicted some time ago... see thread here from end July) seeks to call a pre-Brexit GE, eg for 14 October. Thread. 1/
The emerging consensus is that the opposition should deny the PM the 2/3 majority he needs under the FTPA, and resist what Tony Blair yesterday called the 'elephant trap'. 2/
Instead, the opposition should pass legislation (to be debated later today in the HoC) mandating that Johnson has to seek an extension if he is unable to reach a deal with the EU by late October. 3/
Read 15 tweets
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Hilary Benn
@hilarybennmp
1/8 The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill 2019
2/8 The purpose of the Bill is to ensure that the UK does not leave the European Union on the 31 October without an agreement, unless Parliaments consents.
3/8 The Bill gives the Government time either to reach a new agreement with the European Union at the European Council meeting next month or to seek Parliament’s specific consent to leave the EU without a deal.
Read 7 tweets
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Brigid Fowler
@Brigid_Fowler
OK, I've caught up with Twitter again & there's both some v. interesting exchanges & still a fair bit of apparent wider public confusion re: the date UK leaves the EU, A50 #extension & the SI to change 'exit day'. So, in interests of end-of-the-week clarity, here's another go. 1/
The date UK leaves the EU is an intl matter. It's not determined by whatever UK domestic law may say.Changing 'exit day' in UK law doesn't change date UK leaves the EU. See posts this wk by @woodstockjag & @DomWalsh13 as well as me, & eg @ProfMarkElliott & @carlgardner on here 2/
UK & EU have now agreed that A50 period, at the end of which the departing state leaves the EU, will be later than 29/3. The only way the UK still leaves the EU on 29/3 is if UK gov, or EU, or both, renege on the agreement reached last night. 3/
Read 11 tweets
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Lexy
@PoliticallyRYT
Judicial Watch: Obama Admin Spent $9 Million Colluding With Soros Groups in Albania.
/1

#DeepState
#ObamaGate
#Soros
#ThursdayThoughts
#ThursdayMotivation
#MAGA
#KAG

cnsnews.com/news/article/m…
Documents obtained by Judicial Watch from the U.S. Agency for International Development show that, under the Obama administration, the agency gave $9 million to the "Justice for All"campaign, which is overseen by left-wing billionaire George Soros' "East-West Mgmt Institute."
/2
The money was used "to fund left-wing political activities in Albania, including working with the country's Socialist government to push for highly controversial judicial 'reform,'" said Judicial Watch in a statement.
/3
Read 19 tweets

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