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A lot of debate here about how the opposition should react if Johnson (as predicted some time ago... see thread here from end July) seeks to call a pre-Brexit GE, eg for 14 October. Thread. 1/
The emerging consensus is that the opposition should deny the PM the 2/3 majority he needs under the FTPA, and resist what Tony Blair yesterday called the 'elephant trap'. 2/
Instead, the opposition should pass legislation (to be debated later today in the HoC) mandating that Johnson has to seek an extension if he is unable to reach a deal with the EU by late October. 3/
I'm not at all convinced that the consensus view is right. Yes - I can see the sense in denying Johnson a GE at a time of his choosing. But - there are significant problems with the extension route. 4/
First, it involves Johnson remaining PM. Yes, he would be constrained by the legislation agreed by Parliament, but he would remain PM. He would seek the extension, and negotiate both its terms, and any future Brexit deal with the EU. Is that what the opposition wants? 5/
Second, it represents a huge shift from #StopTheCoup. Is the scandal a no deal Brexit, or the imposition of a no deal Brexit without a mandate? If Johnson seeks and wins a GE, would that not (for better or worse) provide the mandate he requires? 6/
Third, and linked, only an election provides the various opposition parties with the opportunity to obtain a mandate for their preferred Brexit outcomes. If Johnson, however constrained, remains PM, that opportunity will not arise. 7/
The fundamental problem for the opposition is the same as it has been for months (or rather years). They fundamentally disagree on Brexit. Some want to revoke. Some want a people's vote. And some want to leave with one of a variety of 'better' Brexit deals. 8/
The key challenge is to seek to build support for particular substantive Brexit outcomes. The final reason for my suspicion of the extension route is that for my preferred outcome, an extension is not necessary. 9/
For me, the best Brexit outcome is the revocation of the Article 50 notice (as argued here). Were a majority of MPs to back that outcome eg today, Brexit would be stopped. 10/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12…
An extension is not likely to help create momentum towards revoke (instead on past form, it creates time to waste). But... a general election does have the capacity to change things. In a GE, the parties seek a fresh mandate. 11/
Johnson will attempt to navigate the narrow path between a better deal and no deal. Either way, Brexit drags on for years. An opposition seeking a mandate to stop Brexit, and stop it immediately, could prove impossible to stop. 12/
Will it happen? I rather doubt it. BUT... the various opposition parties need to think carefully not just about this week's tactics, but also about broader strategy.
What outcome do they want; and how can they achieve it? 13/
What outcome do they want; and how can they achieve it? 13/
In my (tentative) view, a GE provides opportunities which an extension does not. 14/14
