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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This'll be Monday's #ClassicDom 5D #Brexit chess...

- Govt brings a VONC against itself

- Tory MPs vote for VONC

- All oppo parties vote against (i.e. they DO have Confidence in Govt), so VONC fails

- Tory MPs lose whip because they voted for VONC - Tory Party fully destroyed
(Rationale: Govt might want to bring VONC against itself so as to trigger an election, but Labour and opposition parties want to delay. But how? By having confidence!)

Inspiration for the tweet from @scandifriend @neilrholmes @JohnJCrace
@scandifriend @neilrholmes @JohnJCrace Note people this was a JOKE!

(In these odd days some people thought I was serious!)
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
#BrexitDiagram V16, updated with the news overnight that Labour's position against a 15 Oct election is hardening, and also adding the option that the Government might VONC itself
The impact of this is to make an election on 29 Oct or later much more likely, and an election on 15 Oct much less likely

Cumulative odds of an election this autumn: 87%
Cumulative odds of a Deal: 5%
Odds of No Deal this autumn: 3%
Of course all of this has the caveat that an election might lead to a Deal, or No Deal, but I cannot begin to predict how a General Election will go

If anything changes during the day I'll update this further

As ever all the docs, high res images here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Broadly speaking the parties have the following approaches to a General Election

CONSERVATIVES
Want it as soon as possible, and ideally 15 Oct

OPPOSITION PARTIES
Want it after 31 October
The problem for the opposition parties is if the election is called Monday 9 Sept, a 15 Oct General Election is what you get

Delay calling a General Election until after prorogation has ended on 14 Oct means opposition parties are branded cowards, chickens etc. until then
How do you square this?

This cunning plan from Simon Banfield might just be the solution
Read 7 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
New, redesigned #BrexitDiagram V15

Now arrow width corresponds to accumulated probability (was previously according to the probability at a node)

Headline: election after 31 Oct the most likely outcome
Why the change?

When @daserste @ardmoma used the diagram on TV this morning, they highlighted the most likely routes - and it worked! So I have adapted their approach for this redesigned version
And while it's fun to go "oooh, look, this whole thing is complex!", my aim is to actually *explain* Brexit and make things clearer. I think the redesigned version does this better

I have also tried to incorporate some of @ahaufstop's design tips - many thanks!
Read 4 tweets

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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to another #Brexit thread

I'll be attempting to cover the events that are happening both in the Commons and in the Lords today so this is going to be a long one

1/n
So first things first, hello to all my new followers and here's a quick breakdown of what's happening today, and a quick precis of how business in each House is carried out and why really arcane things seem to happen that bear little-to-no relationship to reality

2/n
What's expected for today?

In the Lords the Opposition and Crossbench peers have laid a motion that will allow them the time to scrutinise the Bill that's about to be debated in the Commons. They want to debate this Bill on Friday at the latest. More on that later

3/n
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Turnaround & Cash Wars Veteran #FCA #ICAEW
@StuartLothian
#Brexit ALREADY costs UK £1bn pw as we Hit Holidays! @GoldmanSachs put that lower at £600m. but I'm looking at 2+% less GDP (than would have been); more Govt Debt (+interest); the growing impact of #Brexodus on jobs/taxtake; £devaln.&inflation creep, reducing Property values.1/20
@GoldmanSachs Am puzzled & mortified? that UK's so-called Major Political Parties @Conservatives @UKLabour seem umbilically disconnected? from the financial IMPACT of their recent (let's say) 'accidental collusions' and Brexit-Birth-Giving! Why the co-incidental & costly numeracy lapse? 2/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour Assuming that (eg) @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady are aware of UK's #Brexit financial haemorrhage? eg Govt Debt, Jobs/Tax, Businesses (all sizes), Individuals - there may be varying estimates? but agreement that a HUGE hit is ongoing! 3/20
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Isolated Brit
@IsolatedBrit
Tory #Brexit dimwit Daniel "Kerchingski" complains to "liberal elites" of #BBCNews about #SkyNews reporter...
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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit: ricapitoliamo.

1) La Camera dei Comuni incarica Theresa May di rinegoziare il backstop per evitare il ritorno della frontiera fisica tra Irlanda e Irlanda Nord.

Cioè quello che May ha cercato di fare a dicembre e inizio gennaio ottenendo una lettera Ue di chiarimenti
#Brexit: ricapitoliamo

2) L’Ue risponde subito: no.

Come già detto a dicembre l’accordo di ritiro, backstop incluso, non si può rinegoziare.
#Brexit: ricapitoliamo

3) La Camera dei Comuni dice “no” all’uscita senza accordo, ma boccia gli emendamenti per rinviare la Brexit.
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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
#BREXIT On Govt Motion backing negotiated EU Withdrawal Agreement & declaration on future relationship with EU:

FAILED Aye 202 Nos 432

PM has 3 sitting days to return with response.

You thought we were screwed up from our Russian attack. At least we're dealing with it.
Corbyn tables a Motion of No Confidence. #BREXIT
SNP uses a point of order to seek to halt the Art 50 clock "to protect all our nations." 😎
Read 4 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets

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