Thread by @pmdfoster

So. Could @BorisJohnson leave the EU and deliver brexit by October 31? Maybe.

As the ship heads for the rocks, here's a couple of blue sky/crazy (?) scenarios doing the rounds. 1/Thread

@BorisJohnson Scenario 1: Johnson is boxed in by Benn legislation, mandated to go to BXL to seek extension against his will. Shows up at October 17 European Council...and agrees to an NI-only backstop! /2

@BorisJohnson Why would he do that? Well it's least worse option from

a) asking for extension and getting eaten by Brexit Party
b) breaking law and ignoring will of Parliament

While delivering on his promise to leave. /3

@BorisJohnson At the same time he can also say he's delivered HARD Brexit on a GB-basis to the Brexiteers while 'dealing' with the Irish issue (and let's face it, the Spartans don't care about the DUP). /4

@BorisJohnson Johnson has already moved 30 per cent of the way to NI-only backstop...and it is already lying on a shelf (gathering dust) in Michel Barnier's office, so doable from drafting point of view, and EU would be happy. /5

@BorisJohnson As a sweetener, while opening the WA to change the Irish Protocol back to NI-only (which NI businesses would back over a no deal) there could be added language on consent and the 'in whole or in part' nature of backstop which can fall away in bits as technology etc allows. /6

@BorisJohnson The DUP would scream - but frankly it would, with right window dressing, give them an exit from the current 'no deal' track which would be a disaster from them. And privately it seems DUP has made clear to lots of people it wants a deal. /7

@BorisJohnson Of course, this would be a huge climbdown from UK side which is clear that any NI-only elements must be with DUP consent...but, per choice above, well - any port in a storm. /8

@BorisJohnson Why would Parliament back this? Well, this is where a second scenario comes into play....

...what if the European Council had not granted an extension? Mmm..... /9

@BorisJohnson Because the EU knows that the UK Parliament does NOT want a 'no deal'.

So by denying an extension, and offering a deal (of this kind, or alternative a backstop with lipstick on) and then sends Johnson back to London with it. /10

@BorisJohnson Huge gambit. Huge gamble from an EU perspective, but it puts the ball in UK court.

They very obliquely toyed with the idea in March when Tusk came out with very small extension...but all the member states backed down, despite French grumbling. /11

@BorisJohnson Might the mood be different this time? Could there be a desire out there to finish it?

Johnson can have free vote. Parliament (presumably) would vote for these deals over 'no deal' and so at the very death, the deal goes over the line. /11

@BorisJohnson I can think of lots of reasons why it doesn't work...not least that it's not the kind of hardnut/ballsy thing that the EU does when acting at 27 - and you'd have to convince the Germans to go craaazy for a day. And not sure A. Merkel does crazy. But wild-eyed Mr Macron might? /12

@BorisJohnson Bearing in mind that the ECJ has made clear in ruling last year that UK does have the right to unilaterally revoke its Article 50 notification...so if it did all back fire, 'no deal' would still be on UK terms. /13

@BorisJohnson Also, as far as blame goes, the EU kinda accepts that from a large chunk of UK public opinion it would get the blame in any event for whatever happened, so why not roll the dice? /14

@BorisJohnson It would, as I say, be very out of character - but it's an interesting thought-exercise for a Friday.

Because Johnson is going to be cornered by the legislation...he can resign, he can refuse...or he could do something unexpected when confronted with few good options./15

@BorisJohnson He would, of course, get eaten alive by his right flank and Farage - essentially splitting the Party he has already split once, again - but then again, having delivered Brexit, having turned the page....maybe not.

Anyway...just thinking out loud, nothing more. 16/ENDS