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This #SundayMorning, after a week of disturbing fixations and mounting evidence of the President's instability, we're asking a critical question.

Will Republicans ever abandon Trump? What's it gonna take for them to put country over party?
(THREAD)

independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
(2) The short answer is no. Most Republicans will never turn their back on Trump. There are a few reasons for that.

-They don't believe (or don't care that) Trump committed a crime
-The G.O.P still holds the power of Congress thanks to Mitch McConnell

nymag.com/intelligencer/…
(3) Trump's high favorability ratings among Republicans, especially heavily conservative ones are baked in. And in today's hyper-partisan environment, Trump's tactics of encouraging political conflict are alarmingly effective.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017…
(4) But there are a couple of chinks in Trump's armor that just a cursory glance at the numbers ignores.

In a nutshell, there are simply fewer Republicans than ever before. Trump's presidency seems to have accelerated a shrinking voter base.

brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/20…
(5) Let's stop discussing how to win conservatives over and start talking about how to win independents. Trump's small but vocal fan base is a lost cause.

Independents are the biggest voting block in America, back up to 42% of the electorate in 2017.

news.gallup.com/poll/225056/am…
(6) Not all independents are created equal. Most have what we'd identify as a partisan lean. This means they're likely to vote a specific party but identify as moderates. The good news is Democrats have an advantage here by a few percentage points.

washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
(7) The numbers that should worry the Trump campaign the most are the polling among independents. He's losing among independents by a strong margin in key states in most 2020 matchups.

Recent polls show Pence enjoys stronger polling numbers than Trump.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
(8) In fact, a third of Republicans want other candidates on the ballot. And the GOP move to eliminate primaries in four states, while not unusual for incumbents, stinks of desperation for Trump, who is a wildly unpopular President by modern standards.

cnn.com/2019/01/29/pol…
(9) The truth is that Republican challengers simply can't win a primary against an incumbent President. But what they can do is permeate the fact-free Fox News bubble and force coverage that exposes Trump's corruption and continued mental decline.

vanityfair.com/news/2019/09/n…
(10) When we ask ourselves what will be the catalyst for the Republican party (what's left of it) to abandon Trump, the answer is clear. The recent wave of Republican retirements from Congress and the terrible polling numbers among independents mean the exodus is already at hand.
(END) Thanks to @Crashmodem for the #SundayMorning thread suggestion. Come back next week and we'll do this again.

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