Thread by @koeppelmann

1/n
We are ready for the first wave of beta users for our first prediction market product: sight.pm
Sight is product centered around information discovery and forecasting for better decision marking.

2/n
We will start those markets around the blockchain industry. When will ETH 2.0 phase 0 go live? Will Libra launch in 2020? How many of the top 10 market cap coins will remain in this position? What will be $ gas costs for a token transfer in a year from now?

3/n
Having 24/7 live data on those questions will already help people make better decisions but we can get more specific: For Ethereum we could ask: IF we set staker rewards to a specific number, how much ETH will be staked. IF we increase the gas limit, what are consequences ...

4/n
for gas price, state growth and uncle rate.

The key issue for prediction markets so far has been a lack of liquidity. We are addressing this with @robinhanson "LMSR market maker" - a tool to provide always guaranteed liquidity. Whenever you will look at the markets...

5/n
you will find a tight spread being offered and therefore market prices that can be directly translated to the probability of the event. In that sense trades will happen P2C (person to contract) - similar as in @UniswapExchange.

6/n
As a preview we put on of those conditional markets around #brexit live. conditionaltokensdemo.gnosis.io/# It is traded in DAI and as it is demo purposes only liquidity is caped at only 1DAI.

7/n
This page offers on the surface 3 independent markets. In reality however it is just 1 market that creates consistent prices/likelihoods about all 2^3=8 possible futures ((yes, yes, yes), (yes, yes, no), (yes, no, yes), ....)

8/n
This allows to express all correlations between those events.
In this example:
What is the likelihood of a hard Ireland boarder vs: what is the likelihood of a hard Ireland boarder IF hard Brexit happens.

9/n
In other words - you do not have to have an opinion about wether or not Brexit happens - you just e.g. express your opinion that IF hard Brexit does not happen - there will be no closed boarder. In the case of Brexit happening you prediction will simply be refunded.

10/n

11/n
Starting in October (no US/Canada/ China) users can will have access to those markets. Since they are subsidized with the market maker traders will on average have positive returns. The main goal of this first markets is to prove we can create valuable insights.

12/12
If you are interested to be a user, sign up on sight.pm or join or telegram group for questions and discussions or market suggestions: t.me/GnosisGeneral