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So @SteveBarclay is speaking in Madrid today on #Brexit
The speech is confrontational, laden with threats - to both Europe and the Commission - which is interesting indicator perhaps of where talks are? It is a very aggressive text - some extracts and thoughts 1/thread
The speech is confrontational, laden with threats - to both Europe and the Commission - which is interesting indicator perhaps of where talks are? It is a very aggressive text - some extracts and thoughts 1/thread
@SteveBarclay He starts with the backstop, and cites David Trimble as his evidnce for why it rides "roughshod" over the Good Friday Agreeement. This is extraordinary and dangerous for a number of reasons.
1) Amazing to hear UK minister so nakedly siding with one community /2
1) Amazing to hear UK minister so nakedly siding with one community /2
@SteveBarclay The same community whose DUP party props up the government! Where does that leave the Nationalist community? Remember the other bloke who won the Nobel Peace prize? This kind of side-taking in Northern Ireland only polarises and pushes solutions further away. Extraordinary. /3
@SteveBarclay And on the substance Trimble is not neutral - on the contrary.
Recall that he wrote forward to an @policy_exchange report that said brexit would cause some "violence" but quickly subside. /4
Recall that he wrote forward to an @policy_exchange report that said brexit would cause some "violence" but quickly subside. /4
@SteveBarclay @Policy_Exchange The idea - peddled by @Policy_Exchange Trimble, Paul Bew and others - that a north-south trade border in Ireland isn't against letter/spirit of Good Friday Agreement and wont destabilise an already unstable environment seems to me deeply disingenous. /7
@SteveBarclay @Policy_Exchange This is what the UK wants - regardless of how febrile borders is. See today's news. A paramilitary style beating of a businessman...Brexit didn't cause NI to deriorate but a border would be a match on a pile of tinder /8
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
@SteveBarclay @Policy_Exchange But back to the speech...he argues that since the EU has agreed to give 'alternative arragnements' a try, and the backstop is temporary, how can they now demand a solution that results in 'no checks'? /9
@SteveBarclay @Policy_Exchange But the backstop was there PRECISELY because the UK govt could not explain how it would deliver "no return to borders of the past" while leaving EU customs and single markets. That's WHY it was an 'unless and until' basis. Barclary is just scoring a debating point here /10
@SteveBarclay @Policy_Exchange The truth - as the next part of the speech makes clear - is that this UK govt DOES have an answer to the problem: erect a trade border in Ireland, just be "flexible" about it.
Hence the ultimatum that follows - do a deal by 2020, or accept a trade border NO via a no deal /11:
Hence the ultimatum that follows - do a deal by 2020, or accept a trade border NO via a no deal /11:
There are several reasons why this is frankly silly.
1) The 'no deal' threat doesn't work. It can't be 'manageable' for UK and SO awful for EU they'll put border in Ireland/throw Ireland under bus etc. Threats don't work - especially when Benn Act means extension there anyway/12
1) The 'no deal' threat doesn't work. It can't be 'manageable' for UK and SO awful for EU they'll put border in Ireland/throw Ireland under bus etc. Threats don't work - especially when Benn Act means extension there anyway/12
Second - even the true believers in Alternative Arrangements have told the EU they won't be ready (the computers, the rifid chips and the drones) for THREE YEARS. The transition only last 14 months. So even on UK's own terms it wont be ready by 2020 /13
So the UK government knows this, but still wants the EU and Irish govt to plough on, take a chance, 'trust us' (per Johnson letter of Aug 19th) and just see what happens - per Johnson 'look at what commitments' we might give. /14
This cowboy diplomacy - both with NI politics, the border question and the realities of the deal - also politically toxifies situation in Ireland where @LeoVaradkar is apparently expected to climb down, or accept a time-limit or similar....seriously? /15
@LeoVaradkar As I've said before, if the choice is a 'no deal' - and an abrupt trade border that the Brits bring about - and acquiescing in a Border at the end of 2020, that's a non-choice for a Taoiseach. As it happens I'm writing this in Dublin - hard to find anyone who says otherwise./16
@LeoVaradkar The issues really are substantive - and the current UK govt giving up on May's 2017 pledges on the border, couple with determination to have hard/Canada-minus brexit (so no customs or single market for goods for GB) makes it an even higher hurdle. /17
@LeoVaradkar What about the rest of the speech...its bascilly a long of threats - to Spanish fishermen, veg growers and tour operators /18
@LeoVaradkar IMAGINE how a Spanish minister would go down in London dishing out threats in this manner? I asssume @SteveBarclay reckons its sounds tough...rather than just shrill, tin-eared or desperate. /19
@LeoVaradkar @SteveBarclay And now for the grand finale. Barekunckle Steve threatens Ireland with a medicine shortage in the event of a 'no deal'! What next? We gonna starve the Irish out?
(FWIW a lot of Northern Irish medicines come via landbridge, which means they'll suffer too, but let's skip that.)20
(FWIW a lot of Northern Irish medicines come via landbridge, which means they'll suffer too, but let's skip that.)20
@LeoVaradkar @SteveBarclay In summary? I cannot for the life of me think WHY UK govt thinks threats will work for getting a deal. Unless this is just about prepaing for a general election; since they know they're snookered in Parliament and won't risk the political pivot needed to do such a deal? ENDS
