Thread by @JuliusWaller

After my EU view of the Brexit negotiations predicted an extension a plethora of reports came out: 'concrete' proposals have been made orally, German sources said to push for deal and various hypotheticals on non-backstop WA. @Mij_Europe even put a deal @20% 1/

Most of those reports sound plausible but are they real or just media acting as message boys for spin as @CoppetainPU fears many are?
Progress is NIL but it didnt mean nothing was mooted however as you will see - the substance is easily debunked. 2/

SPS/Agriculture zone for the emerald isle? Yes - mooted by UK side very publicly. This is not stand-alone however it is an attempt to divvy up the BS to make it palatable. It came together with extensive requests for customs exceptions and derogations. 3/

The exceptions would cover 75%+ of trade. Worse even if you accept them, there are no solutions for custom duties, trade defence instruments or VAT. When PM was said to have expressed surprise about the extent of issues it was about the EU pointing this out.4/

Partial all Ireland single market (e.g. energy) with Stormont to have say/veto. This is a balloon - the EU doesnt do international agreements with regions, Stormont is more complicated than Switzerland and has double majority voting. Our lives are hard enough. No passaran. 5/

German and/or other MS giving cautious support for 'believing the PMs promises'. Yes, British diplomats have been assiduously circling over MS capitals to strike bi-lateral deals. Divide et Impere - however noone is duped even if everyone agrees to talk 6/

Certainly Germany - like everyone - prefers a deal and many would like to be rid of Brexit distractions. However the reporters claiming there is any chance of that bypassing Merkel's Chancellery policy have learnt nothing since the 'German car industry will save us' lie. 7/

One of the issues is that most British do not understand how Germany functions. It is a complex federal state that is unlike Anglo-Saxon institutions. The diversity means there are always multiple voices but the internal cooperation is protected above external concerns.8/

Downing Street proposals fail fundamentally on 2 weaknesses. a) They are conceptual and vague - there really are NO TEXTS let lone something that could pass as a legal protocol. Even if the vague conceptual notions could be distilled into real solutions there is no beef. 9/

It may sound good but it cannot be spelt out in a legal text at least not without weeks of work. Whomever reckoned that 27 sovereign states - even with the best will in the world - would accept some concepts as a solution is nothing but amateurish, for that is how it is seen.10/

b) The distressing issue is that the EU realises that the PM finds a hard border in NI acceptable. For EU the avoidance of that is a top priority and that a border with multiple exceptions to reduce friction is lunacy. This might be different if Ireland accepts it, quod non.11/

So is there really no serious talk at all around a neo-Backstop?
This is where it gets complicated - the official position is that this should be possible but does not exist today (widely reported). But what does this mean? 12/

A possibility is that a strong signal would come from the 17/18th-Oct Council to go in that direction AND that Ireland would accept it. It is estimated actually finding this neo-Backstop would take months of negotiations. 13/

As per above however there is not a shred on paper from the UK . The EU side has considered some variants such as FTA style solutions, Norway, some fudge in CU; but the parameters all raise new issues of their own. Realistically it is thought that would require years.14/

Can the PM sabotage the extension request required by the Benn Bill? Not realistic, even if unacceptable offers are placed before the Council or complex wording in the extension request it will be granted on the understanding that its for the UK to take it or leave it.15/

From the above you can see why the EU counts on an extension. (We look at 2 variants below) Everything - even what the PM says he will do (no-deal) would require time. That doesnt mean that anybody likes it. 16/

Variant 1 - is no deal followed by immediate FTA negotiations with US/EU. However there are no preparations for this and whilst the EU might muster an offering the British side is totally unprepared to manage this. It requires papers, agreements, analysis - NONE is available. 17/

Variant 2 - say the EU goes into the neo-Backstop approach. This will place it in Brexit-limbo and decision paralysis for years - the new EU budget cannot wait that long. 18/

The EU is installing a new Commission so there is time until 31/1. What the EU hopes is that leadership and professionalism will return from the UK side. For now it is estimated that Remain v. Leave dichotomy is harsher than ever crushing centralistic forces. 19/

When I wrote an extension was THE scenario, it was not that all you hear is completely false. Simply that you have to take it in a realistic context - nothing but an extension has any realistic chances. Even remain cant deliver on a PV without a year to organise it. /end