Can the Saudi's get back to 9.8mbpd of crude production?
Prior to the attack the Saudi's were producing 9.8mbpd it was broken down as follows
Other fields: 4.6mbpd.
The maximum capacity: 12mbpd
Other Fields: 5.75mbpd
That means that the spare capacity from the other fields are 1.15mbpd.
First, can Saudi's increase production at other fields so quickly to their capacity under 12mbpd scenario? Increasing production can damage fields. Will they take risk?
2. Are Khurais and Abqaiq up and running? and if they are can they process 4.3mbpd?
To reach 4.3mbpd in Khurais and Abqaiq it is assumed that Khurais is running at 0.7mbpd and Abqaiq is running at 3.6mbpd.
Now can Abqaiq run at this level yet?
11 Spheroids which means a throughput capacity of 636kbpd per spheroid
18 Stabilizers which means a throughput capacity of 389kbpd
Rumour is that 2 spheroids were undamaged and 2 had minor damage. Therefore, 2 more damaged spheroids need to be repaired.
5 stabilizers rumored to be damaged so appears sufficient stabilizer capacity to use
It would require:
-the whole Abqaiq plant to be inspected,
-repair spheroids with either new metal or cannibalized from other damaged spheroids,
I am not so sure that is possible.
The press visit to Abqaiq was strange. Aramco are very strong on health/safety. To have people with electrical devices is against how they normally operate. It is especially dangerous on a damaged plant containing light gaseous hydrocarbons
So as it has been shown it is feasible for Saudi to bring back the production by the end of September but is it actually happening?