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, 11 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. Tweet thread. Some thoughts

Can the Saudi's get back to 9.8mbpd of crude production?

Prior to the attack the Saudi's were producing 9.8mbpd it was broken down as follows
Abqaiq: 4.5mbpd
Khurais: 0.7mbpd
Other fields: 4.6mbpd.

2. What is the spare capacity in the system.

The maximum capacity: 12mbpd
Abqaiq: 4.8mbpd
Kurais: 1.45mbpd
Other Fields: 5.75mbpd

That means that the spare capacity from the other fields are 1.15mbpd.
3. So if Reuters are correct and Khurais and Abqaiq have recovered 75% to 80% or 4.3mbpd. That means if Saudis can increase the spare capacity of the other fields then Saudi can produce up to 10.05mbpd (5.75mbpd other field spare capacity and 4.3mbpd through Khurais and Abqaiq).
4. Therefore it appears feasible that they can bring production back in theory. However, there are questions:

First, can Saudi's increase production at other fields so quickly to their capacity under 12mbpd scenario? Increasing production can damage fields. Will they take risk?

2. Are Khurais and Abqaiq up and running? and if they are can they process 4.3mbpd?

To reach 4.3mbpd in Khurais and Abqaiq it is assumed that Khurais is running at 0.7mbpd and Abqaiq is running at 3.6mbpd.

Now can Abqaiq run at this level yet?
6. Abqaiq has a capacity of 7mbpd it contains:

11 Spheroids which means a throughput capacity of 636kbpd per spheroid

18 Stabilizers which means a throughput capacity of 389kbpd
7. To reach 3.6mbpd requires 6 spheroids and 10 stabilizers. Possible?

Rumour is that 2 spheroids were undamaged and 2 had minor damage. Therefore, 2 more damaged spheroids need to be repaired.

5 stabilizers rumored to be damaged so appears sufficient stabilizer capacity to use
8. Therefore, can 2 spheroids be repaired in 1 week?

It would require:
-the whole Abqaiq plant to be inspected,
-repair spheroids with either new metal or cannibalized from other damaged spheroids,
-pressure testing
-other activities.

I am not so sure that is possible.
9. But is it actually running?

The press visit to Abqaiq was strange. Aramco are very strong on health/safety. To have people with electrical devices is against how they normally operate. It is especially dangerous on a damaged plant containing light gaseous hydrocarbons
10. It is also a lot of risk being taken having repairs when the plant is running. Cranes on the site are a ignition hazard and hitting operating pipes or equipment causing another fire. It was also strange to see contractors walking round in t-shirts in an operating plant.
11. Also the photos/videos of Abqaiq showed no water mists in the factory when the press were attending which suggests the plant was not running.

So as it has been shown it is feasible for Saudi to bring back the production by the end of September but is it actually happening?
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