Effectively -despite all the noise - the state of #Brexit negotiations has NOT really changed in last three days or so:
i) Much as there is huge political will in EU to get Brexit deal done.. /1
i) Much as there is huge political will in EU to get Brexit deal done.. /1
EU leaders do NOT want to be hurried into making a new deal to fit Boris Johnson’s timetable. Has to be something they can live with - that doesn’t cause potential probs for single market/ NIreland peace process in years to come /2
ii) This is very difficult to ‘fudge’! EU demanding not ‘good intentions’ as to how single market and peace process should be safeguarded on island of Ireland after Brexit but rather a ‘legally operative text’ /3
iv) EU preferred option remains pivoting back to its initial suggestion of a backstop affecting NIreland only. Where NIreland remains part of UK politically yet stays in EU customs union after Brexit and in parts of single market necessary to avoid controls /4
If the PM went for this (despite publicly ruling out NIreland only option) then EU can see way of getting new deal done this month. Issue of NIreland consent still to be sorted - and would need to be written into withdrawal agreement - but not seen by EU as huge prob BUT /5
PM not biting (yet) Agreeing deal with EU is one thing but must pass Parliament too. Labour not keen to give PM a ‘successful Brexit’ + probably wld lose DUP and some ERG support at least if went for NIreland only option - however much EU tries to dress it up as something else /6
Which leaves negotiators with v) Trying to find a compromise solution that sufficiently protects single mkt and that Dublin can accept but allows NIreland to remain in UK customs territory after Brexit. Technically v difficult and NOT going to magically appear overnight /7
Complicated by vi) Trust being in short supply. EU wary of giving too much in case PM pulls out last minute, pocketing EU concessions to win points at home. EU would then have played a major card but be left with no deal.. /8
“We have no idea what Boris Johnson is planning. We know he wants a deal with the EU but that most of all he wants to win the next election in UK” is what I regularly hear /9
vii)Some in EU unsure about Ireland’s motivations too. They think sudden positive tone out of Dublin last week was born out of Irish gov staring into abyss of no deal and really taking on board etc impact and fact that they themselves wld have to impose customs checks /10
But some EU contacts ask: How open is Ireland really to some compromise? Is the new positive tone maybe a bit of PR to show deal-keen rest of EU that Dublin isnt the nay-sayer in the room? Taoiseach Varadkar (who also expects an election soonish) doing well in polls at home /11
viii) Brexit deal deadline this week is fake deadline for EU. Current Brexit extension runs out 31 Oct. There’s EU talk of new Brexit emergency summit end of month but beforehand could come a UK request for new extension /12
3month extension seen in EU as far more realistic to get new Brexit deal done. It’s true France is reluctant BUT would Paris REALLY say no to extension request? EU wishlist in priority order: Avoid no deal Brexit if poss, then get legally operable agreed Brexit deal asap /13
ix) Depressing reminder: this merry-go-round/ political roller-coaster is about Leaving. This was supposed to be the easy bit. The really hard part comes after: hammering out post Brexit EU-UK relations esp the trade part.. /14
