Thread by @Usherwood

A couple of thoughts on yesterday's ruling by @UKSupremeCourt and its implications for Brexit

1/

@UKSupremeCourt Recall that this case was at the edges of justicability, but Court was willing to extend broader principles into this area unanimously

2/

@UKSupremeCourt If government sought to evade responsibilities under Benn Act, then that would be much less problematic for Court to get stuck in

3/

@UKSupremeCourt Plus, Cherry/Miller ruling rested on respect of Parliament's constitutional rights, so no good reason to think that wouldn't lead to a remedy that resulted in an fulfilment of Benn Act (i.e. a request to extend)

4/

@UKSupremeCourt Also recall that TEU is silent on process for requesting extensions, so no reason think EU would refuse to accept validity of request (as it would be in conformity with UK law and backed by SC ruling), even if it came from someone other than PM

5/

@UKSupremeCourt However, the whole episode highlights the zombified nature of Johnson government: unable to guarantee passage of any legislation, but also unable to dissolve itself

6/

@UKSupremeCourt That makes it even harder than April to argue that constructive action is going to come in a new extension: sure, there's a high chance of #GE19, but that eats up most of the period to 31/1/20 (the default request under Benn), so do we give even more time than that?

7/

@UKSupremeCourt EU doesn't want to be one to refuse to extend and so create a no-deal, but equally it wants this moving again. For those following French line, the ramping-up of rhetoric in April makes this all the more awkward

8/

@UKSupremeCourt None of this helped by prorogu-arama either: attention of UK government is clearly not on COM talks

If there was a plan for push around Oct #EUCO then that has to be damaging too

9/

@UKSupremeCourt Finally, all will be noting that #GE19 might not solve anything at all. Maybe you get a single-party majority, but then it's more likely to be Johnson again (now with MPs in number), or you get coalition talks (which'll take much longer than 5 days this time)

/10

@UKSupremeCourt Overall, ruling doesn't really help with Brexit, since it's not pushing towards any one of the options (leave with a deal; leave without a deal; not leave)

/end