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, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
bookmarked this b/c:
A- Houthi ‘initiative’ came after Abqaiq B- a week b4 UNGA meetings C- as Fatima mentions, likely coordinated w Iran’s HOPE proposal @ UNSC D- HOPE was rejected by POTUS E- pressure by Dubai on Abu Dhabi/Riyadh relations 1/ #Yemen
2/ Southerners & Islahis in Hadi’s Gov hv strongly rejected ANY direct negotiations btween Houthis & KSA, a demand by Saleh up to the day before he was executed ... #Yemen Gov fear details of a KSA/Houthi deal
3/what helps KSA move on a ceasefire initiative w/o Gov of #Yemen s da delay in talks btween STC & Hadi’s Gov. - KSA rightly fear Houthis may gain momentum along fronts in North Yemen as Nat’l Army s focused on containing STC in Shebwa - Houthis r trying to push north of Harad
4/ KSA may use the IDEA of talks w Houthis as pressure in Hadi’s Gov to move forward w STC talks in Jeddah - it may even allow for KSA to influence the make-up of #Yemen Gov delegation to speed up talks & compromise w STC, latter rejects VP Ali Muhsin & Islah reps in Talks
5/UAE hv been encouraged to talk to Houthis, which it can’t as long as STC and Guards of Republic remain pillars of Houthi containment & remained engaged in Hodeida, al-Dhale & Lahj (a threat to Aden) - UAE would see Houthi/KSA talks benefiting UAE stance in Islah, helping STC..
6/ ultimately, any attention given to Houthis outside UN/2216 framework will upset #Yemen Gov, whether Hadi’s Gov is in a position to challenge BOTH UAE & KSA on this remains to be seen....Hadi called on Coalition Mil assistance, BUT UN/GCC initiative placed him @ Presidency...
there r 3 issues possibly influencing this KSA plan: 1- relations w UAE (Dubai) 2- the Abqaiq strike (not by Houthis) 3- the Hadi/STC conflict escalation .... we’ll see if the ‘ceasefire’ on 3 fronts holds longer than Houthi initiative ...
interesting that it’s Mohammed Ali who claims no agreement on ceasefire... as Houthi initiative was proclaimed by SPC head al-Mashat ... #Yemen
Mohammed Ali al-Houthi as a member of Supreme Political Council and not head of Supreme Revolutionary Committee (??)
v @KhalilDewan #Yemen
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