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1. What are the odds of the House voting for impeachment? Extremely high—almost certain. What are the odds of enough Republicans in the Senate voting to remove Trump? Currently low, but here’s how that could change:
2. Dozens of Republican Senators privately loathe Trump but back him because they fear electoral backlash from his diehard base. They’ve thrown out principles completely & have been spineless sycophants for him. But it’s always been about electoral calculation, plain and simple.
3. The recent revelations are likely to be the tip of the iceberg. More damning revelations are basically certain. And this pace is unsustainable for Republicans, especially as high-profile hearings continue to sway public opinion against Trump. And that’s crucial.
4. *If* Republican leadership believes that a) Trump will lose in 2020; and b) he will damage the GOP badly for 2020 Senate/House races, at some point they will be tempted to jettison him. But they will weigh that against the inevitably huge backlash from the Trump base.
5. Still, at some point, the dam could break. If a few high-profile Republicans back impeachment, there could be a tipping point in which *the electoral calculation* that so far has protected Trump could end up ensuring his downfall. Currently unlikely, but no longer implausible.
