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1/8 For non-historians out there. I wrote a book about US-Indonesian relations during the 1960s, and mass killings of 500,000 or so during the rise of General Suharto in 1965-1966. Talk by Trump and supporters of treason, coup d'etat and civil war is a very, very dangerous sign.
2/8 In the year leading up to the alleged coup attempt on Sept 30, 1965 which brought Suharto to power, and the murder of perhaps 500,000 which followed, the Indonesian army and its supporters, including the US, relentlessly pushed rumors of impending civil war and violence.
3/8 These groups alleged that Indonesian Communist party supporters were preparing mass graves, planning campaigns of mass murder, etc., amplified month after month at a time of real economic and political crisis. Rumors of coups and counter-coups filled the air.
4/8 It was clear at the time, and to historians looking back, that Indonesian society and politics was reaching a dangerous inflection point, w/ low level violence breaking out around the country. Episodes of mass political violence often look like this beforehand.
5/8 Historians of mass violence, looking back, can't say "here is a place where mass violence was sure to occur." Some political systems can endure such extraordinary levels of stress and bend without breaking. But such violent hyper-polarization is a flashing warning signal.
6/8 Right now Trump himself is stoking this violent polarization, while an entire right wing media and social media infrastructure is amplifying him. Republicans officials are doubtless hearing this in their districts, and I imagine some are repelled by it. Others welcome it.
7/8 This moment is an enormous 'stress-test' of the US political system, and its dangerous to underestimate Republican willingness to push the system to to the breaking point, knowing of the prospect of large-scale violence. Existing models of US politics aren't very useful here.
8/8 If impeachment proceeds, overwhelming evidence produced, Trump is impeached and resigns, then we can safely say the system has passed this stress test. If Trump is impeached, Senate refuses to convict, then I believe we are in extraordinarily dangerous territory.
