Thread by @KongTsungGan

Andrew Nathan's study of #CCP thinking on #HK is probably the most serious attempt yet to get inside its head. If accurate (& I imagine it mostly is), it shows how deluded the CCP is & how badly it misunderstands the situation. See points below. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

1) #CCP believes what truly ails #HK are economic problems, not political ones.
Yes, but gross income inequality & unaffordability are long-standing, not new. & increasingly HK see they are caused by no democracy: elites collude w CCP & HK govt to retain economic privileges.

2) #CCP thinks #HK political problems are caused by a) its colonial legacy & b) western (ie, US) interference.
Actually, #UmbrellaMovement & current protests show HK people overcoming our colonial mentality (acquiescing to being run from elsewhere) & demanding self-determination.

The West really doesn't care about HK. To the West, it's an inconvenient problem on its China agenda, which is shaped almost entirely by trade & to a lesser extent, esp w US, security. We've been begging the West for 4mo to raise HK on its China agenda, w few results.

3) #CCP is confident its #HK allies won't defect or withhold support.
This is the 1 respect CCP may be correct. #HK govt & police show no sign of disaffection. The tycoons & business elites are scared & feel abused by the regime but aren't about to speak out against it.

Actually, #CCP relies on #HK tycoons & business elites much less than before & doesn't really care if they stand firm (look at its treatment of Lee Ka-shing), as it is already gradually replacing them w Chinese companies, many of them state-owned.

4) While #CCP may be confident the situation in #HK is under control, it seems to have no long-term plan.
Of course, its long-term plan is full control & assimilation, but how does it get there? It's so lost the proverbial 'hearts & minds' that the only way it can is by force.

Looking at #CCP policies in #HK, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, there's a consistent hardline: imposition, force. This increases disaffection w the regime & virtually guarantees long-term instability/conflict that can only be suppressed by further hardline imposition, a vicious cycle.

So it appears that the #CCP hasn't even begun to come to terms with 'the problem that is #HK' because HK represents the limitations of authoritarian imposition. CCP policy is a dead-end that of course won't end in freedom, rights or democracy but not even in peace & stability.