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I have a dear friend who was reflecting on his parents divorce when he was younger with the benefit of being married now himself say "I don't agree with what they did or think it was right but I understand why each behaved in the way they did." This explains Hong Kong 1/n
The Hong Kong protesters believe they are fighting effectively for their life as they know it. Given everything we know about China, they are not wrong. I hear over and over from smart people about how "if the protesters did ____" they would have more support from 2/n
Mainlanders or they could negotiate with the government. None of this is true at all. Mainlanders will not support Hong Kong and they certainly don't support democracy or be willing to offer up their voices to support it. For year, Beijing has chipped away at every democratic 3/n
Institution, norm, practice, restraint, or organization in Hong Kong when democrats tried to negotiate in good faith. Part of the reason you are seeing this now is that Hong Kongers see the absolute pointlessness of negotiating with Beijing. This is a lesson the 4/n
Acela Corridor Galaxy Brains should learn now. Much of the rage you are seeing is this accumulation of trying to work through the system only be denied at every turn. Here is what most people still do not understand. I see comments about the danger of provoking the PLA. 5/n
You people still don't get THAT IS THE GOAL. What do you think "Add oil" and "if we burn you burn" means? It means: when the fire burns, add fuel. It means, if you kill us, we're going to kill you too. Reframe: Hong Kong matters for only one reason to Beijing: USD access 6/n
Hong Kong protesters want to make it ultimately painful for Beijing so that they can impose significant losses or provoke a conflict such that the world imposes major financial pain on the CCP. You see provoking a conflict with the CCP as a risk to the Hong Kong protesters 7/n
They see it as a goal to impose pain on Beijing. You see a declining economy as a risk to Hong Kong, they see it as a win. Companies flee, banking goes elsewhere. There have been some excesses in the protests for sure, however, if there is one lesson you need to take away 8/n
It is that negotiating with the CCP is pointless. We know what their behavior is going to be. We've known it and seen it for years. The same concept applies to US China relations. The point with US however, is that hopefully people are waking up much much earlier in the game 9/n
You cannot negotiate with the CCP in good faith and expect them to behave like responsible states. I may not agree with everything the protesters do, but believe me, I absolutely 100% F&#$%N understand why. Done.
