Ukraine's economic outlook in a few tweets:
1. The Ukrainian economy has stabilized & is ready for a take off. What is needed is the securing of property rights through reform of law enforcement & the judiciary.
1. The Ukrainian economy has stabilized & is ready for a take off. What is needed is the securing of property rights through reform of law enforcement & the judiciary.
2. Foreign investors will only believe in property rights protection if well-respected the IMF gives its approval through a new 3-4 year program for Ukraine. But the IMF will not do so until President @ZelenskyyUa approves of the Privatbank nationalization & checks Kolomoisky.
3. So far @ZelenskyyUa has not said anything against Kolomoisky. Until that happens, neither domestic or foreign businessmen will dare to invest significantly in Ukraine. Does the president understand that?
4. Meanwhile Kolomoisky attacks on at least 4 fronts:
against low-cost airlines,
against the NBU & its nationalization of his Privatbank,
proposal of confiscatory taxation of iron ore production &
electricity war.
against low-cost airlines,
against the NBU & its nationalization of his Privatbank,
proposal of confiscatory taxation of iron ore production &
electricity war.
5. The new government is passive on all 4 fronts. On iron ore & electricity, Kolomoisky has effectively declared war on Rinat Akhmetov, who hits back. This looks like an old-style oligarch war as in Russia in 1997 with the 2 biggest oligarchs fighting.
6. This is no good for Ukraine or President Zelenskyy. He will have to put down his foot on Kolomoisky on the side of the rule of law very soon if he will not go down as the most recent Ukrainian presidents.
