Thread by @sethjlevy

1/ Your jury pool in impeachment is the current Senators, 53 of which are Republicans. You need to convince 20 of them that Trump should be removed from office in an environment where only 13% of Republicans believe he should even be impeached.

It’s never going to happen.

2/ So you vote for impeachment and hand the process over to Mitch McConnell?!? You know the guy that never took a vote on Merrick Garland. How do you think that’s going to go?

3/ And all that information Democrats are suggesting Trump is obstructing to keep hidden, it’s all exculpatory. As these details get revealed, the percentages for removal are going to drop like a rock. That’s the “remedy” Democrats insist Trump deserves.

4/ None of the above even begins to account for the IG FISA report or any of the information and indictments that Durham may bring forward. The Democrats are going to be exposed as deceivers. Craven partisans who got nothing done but a failed impeachment.

5/ Will Democrats care? No.

But guess who will? Independents.

Right now only 43% of independents support impeachment. But what happens when everyone starts paying attention after articles are voted and it’s revealed as a fraud? Those numbers will collapse.

6/ That’s the reason I say I don’t believe Pelosi will actually vote for impeachment. Especially once you understand why the Democrats have the majority in the House. They won seats in 2018 in districts that voted for Trump in 2016.

7/ Why? Independents swung to put a check on Trump. A very common thing in modern politics. It happened to Clinton in 1994, Obama in 2010 and then Trump in 2018.

But what happens when those independents find out Russian collusion and the Ukraine affair were both hoaxes?

8/ Pelosi is trying to thread a needle. It’s easy for her to talk tough but she knows an impeachment vote is political suicide. That’s why I say I’ll believe it when I see it. The smarter play? Just keep sliming but never vote.

But that comes with its own perils.

9/ A do nothing Congress embroiled in endless investigations can also be turned out. So how do you solve for this?

Pass meaningful legislation.

That’s why I’m predicting infrastructure will pass in 2020. Much like welfare reform passed in 1996. I think we get prescription too.

10/ Most of what I’m describing is just basic political math. Could I be wrong? Sure.

Could Pelosi throw caution to the wind? Sure.

But I don’t think so...

/end

11/ UPDATE:

Graham tells Pelosi GOP won't impeach Trump over Ukraine call

apple.news/AG-bWl5zsQW6zk…