For W. Europe and the US, the most successful and deadly ISIS planned or inspired attacks have aligned with ISIS battlefield successes. This is, in part, because recruitment and radicalization feed off narrative of “success”, the sense that recruits are joining winning team. 1/
More recent Europe and US ISIS attacks have been inspired (rather than planned) by the group and have been relatively minor. This aligned with the destruction of their caliphate. It’s hard to convince people to kill themselves when you are losing on the battlefield. 2/
The intell assessments of ISIS risk in Western Europe will no doubt rise, and curious what US — with no DHS leadership — is anticipating in months ahead. Anyway follow @rcallimachi if you aren’t already. 3/3
