Thread by @JenniferMerode

Michel Barnier said the EU should give one last chance to the British as he met EU diplomats this evening. He said no significant progress had been made over the weekend, but thinks worth continuing talks until Wednesday - one day before European council.
1.

Described by one source as “cautious as usual” Barnier gave a downbeat assessment of the weekend’s talks, which reveals a large gap on customs. While the EU were ready to discuss a return to original Northern-Ireland only backstop, the UK wants a brand new concept. Difficult.
2.

It's a complicated offer based on distinction between imports destined for UK arriving in NI and imports destined for EU. Barnier warned this plan could unravel the EU customs code, posed a high risk of fraud and tarnishing the credibility of the EU single market.
3.

E.g chicken (cholorinated perhaps) is imported into NI and then made into ready meals that are sold in the EU market. In this case, how do you make distinction between goods entitled to enter the EU market and those that are not?
4.

The EU hopes the UK will be able to answer these sorts of problems in the next few days, but not optimistic. The EU wants “operational” solutions. Also thinks David Frost team has limited room to be creative with mandate.
5.

Consent issue also unsolved. Sounds as if there has been less discussion on this point. UK confirmed it had dropped DUP veto plan, but not clear what to replace with. EU continues to insist arrangements cannot be time-limited, nor with right of unilateral exit.
6.

Political declaration also source of tension. UK confirmed want to drop level playing field references, but EU wary of "Singapore on Thames ramifications. France warned last week nothing about the future relationship should be taken for granted.
7.

Senior EU diplomats discussed a possible extension, w/o taking any firm positions. One large member state warned extension unlikely to break the deadlock.

Sense of impatience among some member states they are discussing these complicated ideas at five minutes to midnight.
8.

Mood varies: some speak of cautious optimism. Others more cautious, but looking for the silver lining that talks are continuing. Everyone finding whole situation unpredictable and difficult to navigate. No breakthrough and issues intractable.
9.

One senior EU diplomat said there was “not enough progress” and warned it would be impossible to hammer out a “totally new concept” to replace the Irish backstop within days.

New customs concept by 31 October "impossible". If BJ wants a deal it's NI only backstop.
10.

UK gov spokes: "We have had constructive discussions with the European commission over the weekend. There is still a significant amount of work to be done. Technical talks will continue tomorrow."

(Sounds in tune with EU official readout).
11.

Summary: the UK bid to get a new customs partnership negotiated in a week is too complicated, too risky for EU.
Both sides are reluctantly heading for a third Brexit extension.
12.