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Still believe this to be true.
8 months on, and it’s clearer than ever that a “No Plan” No Deal Brexit will lead to Scotland’s division and Ireland’s union. It will be hard to keep Ireland divided when customs and regulations will be kept aligned north and south, with GB diverging....
... meanwhile the Scots will say that they have had enough of London’s lunacy, and see #indyref2 as the path back to the EU membership that they never wanted to lose. Ironically a Scotland-England border would be easier than a border in Ireland.
How hard would England & Wales be hit by the fall in taxation from the loss of two countries from the union?
Turns out the Government already publish tax revenues broken down by country. Ireland and Scotland account for approx 10% of tax revenues.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Scotland provide their own breakdown with and without North Sea oil revenues. Spoiler alert: it's a lot more than the UK's EU membership fee.

gov.scot/publications/g…
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Ciara McMillan
@CiaraMcMillan4
To the racist liars at @ LeaveEUOfficial:
1. The World Wars were won by the Allies, in which the UK fought alongside their European and American friends, without whom we'd have lost.
2. Germany has won 4 World Cups. England has won 1, in the only final they ever reached.
Ironically, this tweet highlights the England-centric mania of Brexit. LeaveEU clearly aren't giving a thought to the Welsh, Northern Irish or Scottish nations here.
The phrase "Two World Wars and one world cup" is basically boasting about being ignorant about history, and being from a country that's shit at football.
Read 4 tweets
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Ciara McMillan
@CiaraMcMillan4
A #Brexit thought experiment:

Imagine we have left the EU. Our businesses no longer have to comply with EU regulations. You have a business that makes widgets. Do you:

A) Comply with all other countries’ regs but miss out a step that meets EU regs?

B) Continue to meet EU regs?
Note that since you’re already producing the widgets within the EU, you’ve already taken the steps to meet the regulations, so if you decide to stop meeting EU regs you’re cutting yourself off from your existing EU export market.
Also note that by complying with the regs of all the other countries you’re selling to, you will already be most of the way toward meeting EU regs anyway.
Read 4 tweets
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Ciara McMillan
@CiaraMcMillan4
Today, I expect @mrjamesob will be getting calls from loonies excited about Mr Johnson's proposals for the UK border in Northern Ireland, conveniently forgetting that the UK has already committed to avoiding a hard border.

Cue the wrangling about what is meant by 'hard border'
@mrjamesob And the answer is: it's a really complicated and sensitive issue that the vast majority of the population simply don't understand. This isn't me being 'elitist expert' here. I was born and raised in N. Ireland, and I find it very complex too.
fullfact.org/europe/avoidin…
@mrjamesob The only thing I *can* tell you with absolute certainty is that Cummings will have already come up with some bu!!sh!t soundbite that completely misrepresents the situation, but will be trending by noon.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
#Brexit
EU now see G7 as moment “there will be noise” on Brexit as Johnson holds talks with Juncker/Macron/Merkel/Conte
From Frost meeting last week it was clear UK does not have a plan for new talks
“No deal appears to be UK government’s central scenario,” said senior official
One ambassador said, “there is no desire to negotiate at all,”
UK asking for new EU mandate
“Will [EU] change the mandate? No. Change to what? What is the UK mandate ? There is not one,” said senior official
Frost also admitted that even without the backstop, the ERG could well block a deal
“Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative”
Read 10 tweets
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Andy Gibson
@gandy
Brexit contradictions: a short thread. (1/15)
The EU is both too left wing and too right wing. (2/15)
The EU is undemocratic and we shouldn’t have to pay for all their elections. (3/15)
Read 15 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
Virtually every panel from #newsnight to #bbcqt has been dominated by Tory Brexiters & born again Labour "we must deliver #brexit" ones

One key outcome of @TheIndGroup is it's forced @BBCNews to actually feature authentic Remain voices rather than just red/blue Brexit supporters
@TheIndGroup @BBCNews The BBC has failed on #Brexit on many areas but a key 1 has been "balancing" Labour & Tory #Brexit voices - in reality you can barely put a cigarette paper between Corbyn and May on their positions

Labour & Tories are on the same side on this

@TheIndGroup @BBCNews We're still seeing this lack of true balance on the BBC. Labour's ask for a CU in May's deal is being called a soft #Brexit alternative when in reality May's deal already includes a CU in all but name. They're arguing over wording, not substance.

Read 4 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Looks like head on collision with EU. Brussels says U.K. agreed to an “all weather backstop” so it cannot have a time limit and must be written in to the withdrawal agreement ie NOW - during transition which is AFTER Brexit day. See my blog: bbc.com/news/world-eur…
So far EU has been willing to soften language but not legal requirements of backstop. So now what? #Brexit
To the EU May’s hardening on backstop looks again like her putting her party and her survival as PM ahead of negotiating an agreement with Brussels and avoiding a no deal #Brexit
Read 5 tweets

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