Pay attention to this guy. Former Belgian Prime Minister, current European M.P., Brexit negotiator, advocate of making the EU a full-fledged federal nation, strong anti-Russian, and...
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In a related vein, I keep hearing right-wingers (and fortunately fewer left-wingers) who admit to being angry with Trump over Turkey/Kurds suggesting that the answer is to eject Turkey from NATO. Let's chew on that for a second.
Yes, Turkey under Erdogan sucks pretty badly.
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Yes, Turkey under Erdogan sucks pretty badly.
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And Erdogan's Turkey is moving Putin's way, by buying missing defense from Russia, playing into Russia's hands with this Syria offensive, etc.
BUT.
Let's look at what Putin gains if we foolishly let Turkey into his camp. Look at Turkey's neighbors from Putin's perspective:
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BUT.
Let's look at what Putin gains if we foolishly let Turkey into his camp. Look at Turkey's neighbors from Putin's perspective:
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Iraq. Iran. Armenia. GREECE. Imagine Russian fighter groups stationed in Turkey (where ours are now), next to those countries.
And immediate access to the entire Mediterranean.
Suboptimal.
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And immediate access to the entire Mediterranean.
Suboptimal.
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Oh hey did I mention the Mediterranean? Let's look at that. Right now, Russia's access to the Med (and the southern Atlantic) is via the Black Sea, which connects to the Med through the narrow Dardanelle Strait that separates Europe from Asia.
I.e., through ISTANBUL, TURKEY:
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I.e., through ISTANBUL, TURKEY:
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Really, look closely at that map. I've stared at it a thousand times and still goggle at the importance of this specific sea lane:
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Because the Aegean Sea shown on the map?
THAT'S THE MEDITERRANEAN.
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THAT'S THE MEDITERRANEAN.
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Why did Putin want the Crimea? BECAUSE IT'S A MAJOR SEA BASE, as close as Russia can get to the Mediterranean. But it's still separated from the Med by that narrow strait controlled by Turkey.
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Now flip it around. How does the US and NATO get access to Ukraine?
How do US Aegis missile-defense cruisers get access to the Black Sea, to protect southern Europe from Russian attack? Via that strait, controlled by our ally, Turkey.
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How do US Aegis missile-defense cruisers get access to the Black Sea, to protect southern Europe from Russian attack? Via that strait, controlled by our ally, Turkey.
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Here's an earlier thread I did on how Russia is fucking w/ our Aegis cruisers. It's scary. Putin really, REALLY does not like us having missile defense in the Black Sea.
Eject Turkey from NATO, and soon Putin will be able to keep those cruisers out.
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Eject Turkey from NATO, and soon Putin will be able to keep those cruisers out.
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So no, NATO can't afford to lose Turkey as a nominal ally, even if it's a shitty one.
THIS is what Trump's done by alienating the U.S. and Turkey: risked giving Putin a queen and two bishops in Southern Europe. What's happening to the Kurds has HUGE strategic ramifications.
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THIS is what Trump's done by alienating the U.S. and Turkey: risked giving Putin a queen and two bishops in Southern Europe. What's happening to the Kurds has HUGE strategic ramifications.
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And if Verhoefstadt and others conclude the US is an unreliable ally + form a new defense pact that excludes both the US and Turkey? They lose their SE flank in any future armed conflict with Russia/Russian proxies (eg, Slavic former buffer states Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania).
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Ultimately, the main reason the US has never truly stood up for the Kurds is that we can't afford to lose Turkey as a geopolitical ally. But we were doing a good job at keeping Turkey out of Russia's hands while we waited for Erdogan to die, ...
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... in hopes that a more liberal future Turkey might be persuaded to allow the Kurds some cultural integrity and geographic autonomy (which honestly is all they ask for).
But Trump has fucked that up, endangering Europe in the process.
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But Trump has fucked that up, endangering Europe in the process.
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Fuck Trump. Fuck Erdogan. God bless and preserve the Kurds. But we must keep NATO -- including Turkey.
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P.S.:
P.P.S.: God, what a TERRIBLE idea!
Aaargh. MissILE defense.
