China's September trade data doesn't look any better 24 hours later ...
One indicator I like is China's imports from Europe. Shouldn't be driven primarily by chip prices. The trade war on balance should be a positive (trade diversion = China should import from EU not US).
One indicator I like is China's imports from Europe. Shouldn't be driven primarily by chip prices. The trade war on balance should be a positive (trade diversion = China should import from EU not US).
China's exports to Europe have held up so far --
Weakness is on the import side.
e.g. China's surplus with Europe is growing, because China is importing less from Europe than a year ago
(data is y/y change in 3mma)
Weakness is on the import side.
e.g. China's surplus with Europe is growing, because China is importing less from Europe than a year ago
(data is y/y change in 3mma)
There is no doubt that the US tariffs have had an impact -- China's exports to the US are down in a big way compared to its exports to the EU (and the US is growing faster than the EU). Gap here is important.
The Chinese data suggests a further fall in China's exports to the US in September, the first month of the 15% tariffs on the $112b list.
(US data lags a month right now, but it generally has shown a bigger swing that China's data -- thanks to a HK effect)
(US data lags a month right now, but it generally has shown a bigger swing that China's data -- thanks to a HK effect)
We are entering a period when all of the y/y comparisons will be influenced by various pull forwards from various US tariff threats -
But the overall trend here is pretty clear.
US tariffs are impacting China's exports to the US.
And China's imports are weak across the board
But the overall trend here is pretty clear.
US tariffs are impacting China's exports to the US.
And China's imports are weak across the board
