China's economic data ... could be better.
There isn't agreement right now on the basic direction of China's economy.
To me, the data on manufacturing trade (new data point for headline trade should be out soon) suggests ongoing weakness.
(1/x)
There isn't agreement right now on the basic direction of China's economy.
To me, the data on manufacturing trade (new data point for headline trade should be out soon) suggests ongoing weakness.
(1/x)
You can read a new paper (h/t @gavyndavies) from researchers at the San Francisco Fed in two ways. Their real import number suggests a deep slump. Their broader activity indicator suggests a slowdown to trend ...
frbsf.org/economic-resea…
frbsf.org/economic-resea…
@gavyndavies Fulcrum's nowcast also suggests China's 19 stimulus has been effective at restoring growth (after a steep dip in late 18)
ft.com/content/82a0a6…
ft.com/content/82a0a6…
@gavyndavies China is now too important to the global economy to remain a data black hole. There shouldn't be this much uncertainty ...
4/x
4/x
@gavyndavies On one point though I have a high level of confidence. If China has indeed returned to a stable growth path this year, that growth hasn't spilled over to its trading partners.
Its manufacturing surplus has been rising on the back of falling real and nominal imports
5/5
Its manufacturing surplus has been rising on the back of falling real and nominal imports
5/5
