It should not be underestimated how badly the SRU have played this, even in terms of their self-interest. Scotland needs allies, and is making enemies while undermining their own arguments.
Scottish rugby lives in dread of slipping out of Tier 1, because it fears it won’t get back up.
It will kill anything involving the prospect of relegation. It will also follow the money, every time, as was seen over the HEC and RWC2023 votes.
It will kill anything involving the prospect of relegation. It will also follow the money, every time, as was seen over the HEC and RWC2023 votes.
Now, that’s their choice and privilege.
But, they can’t kill relegation on their own. They need other votes in the WR Council to agree and to support that position.
If they lose those votes, they are wide open.
But, they can’t kill relegation on their own. They need other votes in the WR Council to agree and to support that position.
If they lose those votes, they are wide open.
Traditionally, those votes have been from England and Ireland. Ireland, especially, as the IRFU tend to be very sceptical of most ideas, the IRFU tending to agree with Lord Melbourne - “Reform? Reform? Aren’t things bad enough already?”
(Events often prove the IRFU right, btw.)
(Events often prove the IRFU right, btw.)
Let’s just say Scotland has not made itself very popular in Irish rugby lately, it indeed any other voting cohort, and note that the IRFU tends to be unforgiving and very patient, and turn from the obvious implications to the undermining arguments part - specifically, finance.
In the Telegraph last Saturday, the SRU revealed their proposed action would be for damages for loss of earnings based on not getting into a quarter final.
There’s a thread of sports lawyers discussing that here (it’s okay, you can read it, we don’t bite. Well, maybe @sportslawMELB but, lookit, he’s from Doon, and anyway he’s not in the thread...). You get the gist in this one.
The SRU’s trump card to get allies and money has always been, “If you don’t, the sky will fall on our heads and you’ll be wrecked, too.”
Connoisseurs of Brexit arguments will remember at this point that Michael Gove is Scottish.
That noted: we now get to reality-test the claim
Connoisseurs of Brexit arguments will remember at this point that Michael Gove is Scottish.
That noted: we now get to reality-test the claim
If the claims are true, Scotland will get into trouble, and the rest of us could well be looking at the question of how much weight we can shoulder in a post-Brexit NH rugby economy.
And, yes, that universal solvent will be washing through rugby, too, especially rugby in GBP.
And, yes, that universal solvent will be washing through rugby, too, especially rugby in GBP.
If they are not true, Scotland will do as usual, but none of us will take the doom-threats made in the future seriously.
Meanwhile, Japan appear as a credible, well-funded team in the Aus/NZ time zone, while SA is linked tighter to Europe by the Pro14.
Suddenly, the economic calculations on relegation change. There are options coming on board.
That changes the calculus for other unions.
Suddenly, the economic calculations on relegation change. There are options coming on board.
That changes the calculus for other unions.
In short, this was not the fight to pick; if picked, it was not the way to pick it; if in this way, it was not to be done in this public manner; if in this manner, it was most definitely not the time to pick it.
But the SRU picked this fight, in this way, in public, now.
But the SRU picked this fight, in this way, in public, now.
Once they did that, one can debate what a loss would be, but one thing is certain, that once they did that they had to win - and they didn’t.
I suspect the odds on promotion and relegation coming in in test rugby just shortened.
I suspect the odds on promotion and relegation coming in in test rugby just shortened.
As one final note: legal advice hands you a weapon, indeed it can hand you a serious weapon.
But if you pull that weapon out at the wrong time, pointing the wrong way, it may end up hurting you more than them.
Advice bolsters cop-on; it can’t act as substitute for cop-on.
But if you pull that weapon out at the wrong time, pointing the wrong way, it may end up hurting you more than them.
Advice bolsters cop-on; it can’t act as substitute for cop-on.
