@JesseJenkins @drvox Thanks Jesse. Yes, new EPR 2 has been in the works for a while. Needed at least to replace existing fleet. Overall clean power generating capacity forecast to grow to enable electrification & wider decarbonisation so overall % share of nuclear may or may not grow.
@JesseJenkins @drvox Continuous build over a number of units enables upfront investment in design completion & supply chain readiness, improves labour productivity as well as avoiding FOAK costs such as licensing. So cost reduction is achievable with a programmatic approach. Even for an EPR ;)
@JesseJenkins @drvox Also worth noting that EPR build experience in Finland, France, China, UK represents some programmatic learning (despite country specific issues). E.g. learning from Flamanville is being applied in UK at HPC, & experienced project team from Taishan also on HPC leadership team.
@JesseJenkins @drvox So the smart thing for France to do would be to apply learning from international EPR builds to a French programme. Capturing learning through continuous build enables retention of experienced project leadership team & key (qualified, experienced) suppliers.
@JesseJenkins @drvox Main risks would be an undisciplined approach to evolving the design, and/or regulatory-driven design changes. Incomplete design before construction starts is a sure-fire way to drive up cost and cause schedule delays. Late design been a key factor behind issues in UK & France.
@JesseJenkins @drvox P.s. I’m hearing through informal, but well-placed, sources that this news is likely to be confirmed by French government.
@JesseJenkins @drvox Same principle applies in US/UK. Those off-the-charts expensive & slow projects at Vogtle & HPC are actually FOAK one-time costs representing investment in starting a programme. If sequenced properly, fixed design could enable large cost & risk reduction in subsequent builds.
@JesseJenkins @drvox .@drvox I’d be interested to chat with you about this somewhat counterintuitive idea that (according to the best available evidence) the smartest thing the US could do next after Vogtle is immediately build another one.
