, 14 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
BREAKING: Trump Campaign Manager Manafort Receives Sentence:

Count 1: 60 months, with 30 months concurrent to EDVA sentence
Count 2: 13 months, to run to consecutive to Count 1 and EDVA sentence

Upshot: 43 MONTHS (ADDED to Manafort's 47-month EDVA sentence).

(h/t @ZoeTillman)
UPSHOT: Manafort will do 90 months in total (SEVEN AND A HALF YEARS).
UPSHOT (#2): Paul Manafort will leave federal prison (at the latest) at age 77.
UPSHOT (#3): 7.5 years *is* likely long enough that Manafort will ask for a pardon.
UPSHOT (#4): While an attempted Trump pardon is still very possible, Manafort *did* get a great deal across these two cases. He could have gotten *up to* 35 years in total—if all sentences ran consecutively in DC and EDVA, not that they usually would—and instead he got 7.5 years.
UPSHOT (#5): Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort will (with good behavior) do 68 months more (because he already has 9 months in), meaning that he would do FIVE YEARS AND EIGHT MONTHS *more* in federal prison.
UPSHOT (#6): *Without* good behavior, Paul Manafort would do SIX YEARS AND NINE MONTHS *more* in federal prison.
UPSHOT (#7): People do age *much* more quickly in prison (federal or otherwise). Paul Manafort being slated to leave prison at age 77 certainly makes it possible that he will die in prison, but it with equal certainty does not assure it.
UPSHOT (#8): Manafort can still offer additional cooperation within the next twelve months to get his sentence reduced, which means that Trump still has real reason to pardon him: would Manafort risk dying in prison in his seventies when he could cooperate to reduce his sentence?
UPSHOT (#9): Trump now has to weigh three things—Manafort's willingness to do FIVE YEARS AND EIGHT MONTHS more in federal prison; his likelihood of offering the feds new cooperation to lower that sentence further; the political fallout Trump would face were he to pardon Manafort.
UPSHOT (#10): If Manafort's "health issues" are largely faked/exaggerated, which is likely, he will feel he can do five years and eight months more in federal prison if he must—and won't offer new cooperation, and will simply wait to see if he is pardoned. If he's actually ill...
UPSHOT (#11): I think everyone is going to lose sight of the big picture, because we're so focused on sentencing guidelines: Trump's campaign manager just got SEVEN AND A HALF YEARS in federal prison, and his personal attorney got THREE YEARS in prison. That remains *astounding*.
UPSHOT (#12): People will forget that Manafort *also* could have been convicted on eight *additional felonies* but for *one juror* holding out on those charges—and people will forget that Cohen's sentence was as "low" as it was because he offered the feds substantial cooperation.
CONCLUSION: Manafort got a notable prison bid for a 70 year-old and could still face new charges; but for *one juror* he'd definitely have gotten more than a decade in prison. Just so, but for his cooperation with the feds, Trump's lawyer would have gotten a much bigger sentence.
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