There is grave danger in granting an election during a brief 3-month extension. Quite apart from the fact that too much hinges on the Brexit Party (will they fight or cooperate?) the timing's all wrong.
The days are dark, short and cold. And university students get at least 3 weeks - and some even a month - off for Christmas (yes, I know...) so that completely changes the balance in many seats. Imagine Canterbury for instance without the student vote because they're all at home.
And then there's the danger of stumbling into a no deal Brexit.
1) Boris Johnson might be able to fiddle with the date of the election & use the automatic dissolution of Parliament to make sure it wasn't sitting in the runup to and over the new Brexit deadline (e.g. 31 Jan 2020)
1) Boris Johnson might be able to fiddle with the date of the election & use the automatic dissolution of Parliament to make sure it wasn't sitting in the runup to and over the new Brexit deadline (e.g. 31 Jan 2020)
2) Or if the GE produces a hung Parliament again, the horse-trading to form a Government might see us drift into no deal territory again. Remember, it's not possible to pass all the legislation overnight no matter how much the will is there. Parliament needs time to do its job.
3) And of course the big one: if the Tories get a majority they can crash us out even though a minority of the whole electorate will have voted for them. With a strongish Brexit Party and LibDems, they might get a majority with 32-33% of the vote. A poor mandate for crashing out.
Plus how does Labour actually fight, never mind win, the GE? Labour's most recent policy seems to be to try and negotiate a better-than-Tory Brexit (Lexit?) then put it to a referendum. But both take time, lots of time. Time that the EU will need to grant them.
But what if the EU doesn't. That instantly makes a farce of the Labour position. Imagine they won a majority (they won't, but let's pretend). They then need 3-6 months for the negotiations, and 5-6 months for another referendum. Will the EU really go "sure, here's another year"?
I genuinely don't understand how Labour can even produce a manifesto without knowing whether their timetable fits reality or not. The LibDems are easy. If they get a majority (which they won't, but etc.) they would revoke Article 50 and remain. Takes no time at all.
But Labour needs to resolve Brexit. If its resolution takes us past 31 January 2020 (assuming that's the new deadline) I don't understand how they can advocate it as a sensible strategy. Much food for thought in the days ahead, I suspect!
Of course, all the above changes if the EU were to come forward with an extension of 9-12 months. Seems most unlikely, but Brexit brings out the weird in people. If they did, there would be time for a GE, a quick bout of haggling for a deal, and a compressed second referendum.
